相关论文: Intervalles de confiance pour une proportion : les…

This is the guest editors' general introduction to a Special Issue of the Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, dedicated to confidence distributions and related themes. Confidence distributions (CDs) are distributions for…

Sometimes, we do not use a maximum likelihood estimator of a probability but it's a smoothed estimator in order to cope with the zero frequency problem. This is often the case when we use the Naive Bayes classifier. Laplace smoothing is a…

Valid inference after model selection is currently a very active area of research. The polyhedral method, pioneered by Lee, et al. (2016), allows for valid inference after model selection if the model selection event can be described by…

This work develops central limit theorems for cross-validation and consistent estimators of its asymptotic variance under weak stability conditions on the learning algorithm. Together, these results provide practical, asymptotically-exact…

In this article, we consider the problem of constructing the confidence interval and testing hypothesis for the common coefficient of variation (CV) of several normal populations. A new method is suggested using the concepts of generalized…

This paper introduces two methods for estimating reliable prediction intervals for local linear least-squares regressions, named Bounded Oscillation Prediction Intervals (BOPI). It also proposes a new measure for comparing interval…

We evaluate the model averaged profile likelihood confidence intervals proposed by Fletcher and Turek (2011) in a simple situation in which there are two linear regression models over which we average. We obtain exact expressions for the…

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

We present an efficient method of calculating exact confidence intervals for the hypergeometric parameter representing the number of "successes," or "special items," in the population. The method inverts minimum-width acceptance intervals…

Classically, confidence intervals are required to have consistent coverage across all values of the parameter. However, this will inevitably break down if the underlying estimation procedure is biased. For this reason, many efforts have…

Thus far, likelihood-based interval estimates for quantiles have not been studied in the literature on interval censored case 2 data and partly interval censored data, and, in this context, the use of smoothing has not been considered for…

This article addresses issues of model criticism and model comparison in Bayesian contexts, and focusses on the use of the so-called posterior predictive p-values (ppp values). These involve a general discrepancy or conflict measure and…

Researchers often calculate ratios of measured quantities. Specifying confidence limits for ratios is difficult and the appropriate methods are often unknown. Appropriate methods are described (Fieller, Taylor, special bootstrap methods).…

This paper reviews two main types of prediction interval methods under a parametric framework. First, we describe methods based on an (approximate) pivotal quantity. Examples include the plug-in, pivotal, and calibration methods. Then we…

Small sample sizes in clinical studies arises from factors such as reduced costs, limited subject availability, and the rarity of studied conditions. This creates challenges for accurately calculating confidence intervals (CIs) using the…

Interval estimation of quantiles has been treated by many in the literature. However, to the best of our knowledge there has been no consideration for interval estimation when the data are available in grouped format. Motivated by this, we…

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…

Profile likelihood confidence intervals are a robust alternative to Wald's method if the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are not met. However, the constrained optimization problem defining profile likelihood…

Recently we proposed quantum language(or, measurement theory), which is characterized as the linguistic turn of the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics. Also, we consider that this is a kind of system theory such that it is…

Confidence sequences are confidence intervals that can be sequentially tracked, and are valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. This paper presents confidence sequences for a univariate mean of an unknown distribution with a known…