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Debiased machine learning is a meta algorithm based on bias correction and sample splitting to calculate confidence intervals for functionals, i.e. scalar summaries, of machine learning algorithms. For example, an analyst may desire the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-25 Victor Chernozhukov , Whitney K. Newey , Rahul Singh

We show that the stick-breaking construction of the beta process due to Paisley, et al. (2010) can be obtained from the characterization of the beta process as a Poisson process. Specifically, we show that the mean measure of the underlying…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-04-20 John Paisley , David Blei , Michael I. Jordan

We establish Poisson and compound Poisson approximations for stabilizing statistics of $\beta$-mixing point processes and give explicit rates of convergence. Our findings are based on a general estimate of the total variation distance of a…

概率论 · 数学 2023-10-24 Nicolas Chenavier , Moritz Otto

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for certain classes of time series models. In particular, we focus upon scenarios where the likelihoods of the observations and parameter are intractable, by which…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-01-03 Ajay Jasra

We study parametric inference for diffusion processes when observations occur nonsynchronously and are contaminated by market microstructure noise. We construct a quasi-likelihood function and study asymptotic mixed normality of…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-12-29 Teppei Ogihara

We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-22 Richard L. Warr , Jeremy M. Meyer , Jackson T. Curtis

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) is emerging as the most promising candidate for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models to large datasets. However, the performance of these methods has been assessed primarily in the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-06-29 Amar Shah , David A. Knowles , Zoubin Ghahramani

Regularized system identification is the major advance in system identification in the last decade. Although many promising results have been achieved, it is far from complete and there are still many key problems to be solved. One of them…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-04-05 Yue Ju , Biqiang Mu , Lennart Ljung , Tianshi Chen

This paper presents an approximate method for performing Bayesian inference in models with conditional independence over a decentralized network of learning agents. The method first employs variational inference on each individual learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-06-13 Trevor Campbell , Jonathan P. How

In this paper, we study the convergence properties of an iterative algorithm for fast nonlinear model predictive control of quasi-linear parameter-varying systems without inequality constraints. Compared to previous works considering this…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-09-15 Christian Hespe , Herbert Werner

Density Ratio Estimation has attracted attention from the machine learning community due to its ability to compare the underlying distributions of two datasets. However, in some applications, we want to compare distributions of random…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-06-26 Song Liu , Yulong Zhang , Mingxuan Yi , Mladen Kolar

This paper provides a review of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for carrying out Bayesian posterior inference, through the lens of density estimation. We describe several recent algorithms and make connection with traditional…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-09-09 Clara Grazian , Yanan Fan

We propose a simple methodology to approximate functions with given asymptotic behavior by specifically constructed terms and an unconstrained deep neural network (DNN). The methodology we describe extends to various asymptotic behaviors…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2025-07-08 Hardik Routray , Bernhard Hientzsch

This paper considers a semiparametric approach within the general Bayesian linear model where the innovations consist of a stationary, mean zero Gaussian time series. While a parametric prior is specified for the linear model coefficients,…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-09-25 Claudia Kirch , Alexander Meier , Renate Meyer , Yifu Tang

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

Using nonparametric methods has been increasingly explored in Bayesian hierarchical modeling as a way to increase model flexibility. Although the field shows a lot of promise, inference in many models, including Hierachical Dirichlet…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-01-19 Alexander Spangher

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-03-29 Thomas A. Dean , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Ajay Jasra , Gareth W. Peters

Latent variable models are widely used to account for unobserved determinants of economic behavior. This paper introduces a quasi-Bayes approach to nonparametrically estimate a large class of latent variable models. As an application, we…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-12 Sid Kankanala

The asymptotic properties of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been extensively studied, particularly regarding their approximations by Gaussian processes in the infinite-width limit. We extend these results by showing that posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-07 Francesco Caporali , Stefano Favaro , Dario Trevisan

We introduce a new approach to probabilistic unsupervised learning based on the recognition-parametrised model (RPM): a normalised semi-parametric hypothesis class for joint distributions over observed and latent variables. Under the key…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-21 William I. Walker , Hugo Soulat , Changmin Yu , Maneesh Sahani