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In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-11-01 Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

The literature on statistical learning for time series often assumes asymptotic independence or "mixing" of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing coefficients…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-02-09 Daniel J. McDonald , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , Mark Schervish

In this work, we will investigate a Bayesian approach to estimating the parameters of long memory models. Long memory, characterized by the phenomenon of hyperbolic autocorrelation decay in time series, has garnered significant attention.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-19 Clara Grazian

We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-02-25 Keisuke Hirano , Jack R. Porter

This paper introduces a unified parametric modeling approach for time-varying market betas that can accommodate continuous-time diffusion and discrete-time series models based on a continuous-time series regression model to better capture…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-15 Donggyu Kim , Minseog Oh , Minjeong Song , Yazhen Wang

Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable. Approximate Bayesian computation generates likelihood-free posterior samples by comparing simulated and observed data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-02 Joel Dyer , Patrick Cannon , Sebastian M Schmon

Data availability has dramatically increased in recent years, driving model-based control methods to exploit learning techniques for improving the system description, and thus control performance. Two key factors that hinder the practical…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-11-22 Elena Arcari , Andrea Carron , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-08 Keisuke Yamazaki

While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-04-17 Anirban Roychowdhury , Brian Kulis

We develop new representations for the Levy measures of the beta and gamma processes. These representations are manifested in terms of an infinite sum of well-behaved (proper) beta and gamma distributions. Further, we demonstrate how these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-06-22 Yingjian Wang , Lawrence Carin

Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Haiyi Shi , Lei Yang , Jiarui Chi , Troy Butler , Haonan Wang , Derek Bingham , Don Estep

We study high-dimensional asymptotic performance limits of binary supervised classification problems where the class conditional densities are Gaussian with unknown means and covariances and the number of signal dimensions scales faster…

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

Two-time-scale stochastic approximation, a generalized version of the popular stochastic approximation, has found broad applications in many areas including stochastic control, optimization, and machine learning. Despite its popularity,…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-03-24 Thinh T. Doan

Likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models has recently attracted a surge of interest, both in the machine learning and statistics communities. The primary focus of these research fields has been to approximate the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-27 Jukka Corander , Ulpu Remes , Ida Holopainen , Timo Koski

We introduce a new family of paraxial asymptotic models that approximate the Vlasov-Maxwell equations in non-relativistic cases. This formulation is $n$-th order accurate in a parameter $\eta$, which denotes the ratio between the…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-03-03 Franck Assous , Yevgeni Furman

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-26 Burak Çakmak , Manfred Opper

We study high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with a general beta prime distribution for the scale parameter. Under the assumption of sparsity, we show that appropriate selection of the hyperparameters in the beta prime prior leads…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-19 Ray Bai , Malay Ghosh

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-03-15 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

Hierarchical beta process has found interesting applications in recent years. In this paper we present a modified hierarchical beta process prior with applications to hierarchical modeling of multiple data sources. The novel use of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-10-19 Sunil Kumar Gupta , Dinh Q. Phung , Svetha Venkatesh