相关论文: Nowcasting economic and social data: when and why …

Sentiment analysis is the task of automatic analysis of opinions and emotions of users towards an entity or some aspect of that entity. Political Sentiment Analysis of social media helps the political strategists to scrutinize the…

Forecasting the future course of epidemics has always been one of the main goals of epidemic modelling. This chapter reviews statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of epidemic forecasts. We distinguish point and probabilistic…

In the following paper, we use a topic modeling algorithm and sentiment scoring methods to construct a novel metric that serves as a leading indicator in recession prediction models. We hypothesize that the inclusion of such a sentiment…

We study the fame distribution of scientists and other social groups as measured by the number of Google hits garnered by individuals in the population. Past studies have found that the fame distribution decays either in power-law…

The frequency of a web search keyword generally reflects the degree of public interest in a particular subject matter. Search logs are therefore useful resources for trend analysis. However, access to search logs is typically restricted to…

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

While it is often assumed that searching for information to evaluate misinformation will help identify false claims, recent work suggests that search behaviours can instead reinforce belief in misleading news, particularly when users…

The increasing ease of data capture and storage has led to a corresponding increase in the choice of data, the type of analysis performed on that data, and the complexity of the analysis performed. The main contribution of this paper is to…

Search engines are widely used for finding information on the internet. However, there are limitations in the current search approach, such as providing popular but not necessarily relevant results. This research addresses the issue of…

This study uses the semantic brand score, a novel measure of brand importance in big textual data, to forecast elections based on online news. About 35,000 online news articles were transformed into networks of co-occurring words and…

Indirect surveys, in which respondents provide information about other people they know, have been proposed for estimating (nowcasting) the size of a \emph{hidden population} where privacy is important or the hidden population is hard to…

Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…

This paper develops a flexible methodology to analyze the effectiveness of different variables on various dependent variables which all are times series and especially shows how to use a time series regression on one of the most important…

We introduce the use of a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for influenza prediction at the state- and city-level in the US, and experiment with the inclusion of real-time flu-related Internet search data. We find that a GRU has lower prediction…

We consider situations where consumers are aware that a statistical model determines the price of a product based on their observed behavior. Using a novel experiment varying the context similarity between participant data and a product, we…

Bounded time series consisting of rates or proportions are often encountered in applications. This manuscript proposes a practical approach to analyze bounded time series, through a beta regression model. The method allows the direct…

Monthly and weekly economic indicators are often taken to be the largest common factor estimated from high and low frequency data, either separately or jointly. To incorporate mixed frequency information without directly modeling them, we…

Economists are showing increasing interest in the use of text as an input to economic research. Here, we analyse online text to construct a real time metric of welfare. For purposes of description, we call it the Feel Good Factor (FGF). The…

Search query suggestions affect users' interactions with search engines, which then influences the information they encounter. Thus, bias in search query suggestions can lead to exposure to biased search results and can impact opinion…

The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has affected virtually every region of the globe. At the time of conducting this study, the number of daily cases in the United States is more than any other country, and the trend is increasing in most of…