相关论文: On Individual Risk
A distinction is sometimes made between "statistical" and "subjective" probabilities. This is based on a distinction between "unique" events and "repeatable" events. We argue that this distinction is untenable, since all events are "unique"…
In this paper, we take a fresh look at three Popperian concepts: riskiness, falsifiability, and truthlikeness (or verisimilitude) of scientific hypotheses or theories. First, we make explicit the dimensions that underlie the notion of…
Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This…
Classically, risk is characterized by a point value probability indicating the likelihood of occurrence of an adverse effect. However, there are domains where the attainability of objective numerical risk characterizations is increasingly…
Subjective probability is based on the intuitive idea that probability quantifies the degree of belief that an event will occur. A probability theory based on this idea represents the most general framework for handling uncertainty. A brief…
Criticisms of so called `subjective probability' come on the one hand from those who maintain that probability in physics has only a frequentistic interpretation, and, on the other, from those who tend to `objectivise' Bayesian theory,…
The paper is focused on the problem of estimating the probability $p$ of individual contaminated sample, under group testing. The precision of the estimator is given by the probability of proportional closeness, a concept defined in the…
We introduce and study the concept of cyclicity degree of a finite group $G$. This quantity measures the probability of a random subgroup of $G$ to be cyclic. Explicit formulas are obtained for some particular classes of finite groups. An…
In this paper I discuss both syntax and semantics of subjective probability. The semantics determines ways of testing probability statements. Among important varieties of subjective probabilities are intersubjective probabilities and…
This writing: a) Draws attention to the intricacies inherent to the pursuit of a universal seizure definition even when powerful, well understood signal analysis methods are utilized to this end; b) Identifies this aim as a multi-objective…
Individual probabilities refer to the probabilities of outcomes that are realized only once: the probability that it will rain tomorrow, the probability that Alice will die within the next 12 months, the probability that Bob will be…
We review possible measures of complexity which might in particular be applicable to situations where the complexity seems to arise spontaneously. We point out that not all of them correspond to the intuitive (or "naive") notion, and that…
This paper is motivated by the questions of how to give the concept of probability an adequate real-world meaning, and how to explain a certain type of phenomenon that can be found, for instance, in Ellsberg's paradox. It attempts to answer…
Classical statistics and Bayesian statistics refer to the frequentist and subjective theories of probability respectively. Von Mises and De Finetti, who authored those conceptualizations, provide interpretations of the probability that…
We propose an interpretation of physics named potentiality realism. This view, which can be applied to classical as well as to quantum physics, regards potentialities (i.e. intrinsic, objective propensities for individual events to obtain)…
Risk assessment instruments are used across the criminal justice system to estimate the probability of some future behavior given covariates. The estimated probabilities are then used in making decisions at the individual level. In the…
Based on existing ideas in the field of imprecise probabilities, we present a new approach for assessing the reliability of the individual predictions of a generative probabilistic classifier. We call this approach robustness…
Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…
Multivariate methods that relate outcomes to risk factors have been adopted clinically to individualize treatment. This has promoted the belief that individuals have a true or unique risk. The logic of assigning an individual a single risk…
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability…