Logic of subjective probability
Artificial Intelligence
2023-09-06 v1 Other Statistics
Abstract
In this paper I discuss both syntax and semantics of subjective probability. The semantics determines ways of testing probability statements. Among important varieties of subjective probabilities are intersubjective probabilities and impersonal probabilities, and I will argue that well-tested impersonal probabilities acquire features of objective probabilities. Jeffreys's law, my next topic, states that two successful probability forecasters must issue forecasts that are close to each other, thus supporting the idea of objective probabilities. Finally, I will discuss connections between subjective and frequentist probability.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2309.01173,
title = {Logic of subjective probability},
author = {Vladimir Vovk},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.01173},
year = {2023}
}
Comments
19 pages