Probability, propensity and probabilities of propensities (and of probabilities)
History and Overview
2018-02-07 v1 Probability
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
History and Philosophy of Physics
Other Statistics
Abstract
The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real life applications, arise quite naturally and the resulting discussion among non-ideologized, free-minded people offers an opportunity for clarifications.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1612.05292,
title = {Probability, propensity and probabilities of propensities (and of probabilities)},
author = {Giulio D'Agostini},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1612.05292},
year = {2018}
}
Comments
Invited contribution to the proceedings MaxEnt 2016 based on the talk given at the workshop (Ghent, Belgium, 10-15 July 2016), supplemented by work done within the program Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge