相关论文: A Dutch Book theorem for partial subjective probab…

Conceptual combination performs a fundamental role in creating the broad range of compound phrases utilized in everyday language. This article provides a novel probabilistic framework for assessing whether the semantics of conceptual…

The concept of typicality refers to properties holding for the "overwhelming majority" of cases and is a fundamental idea of the qualitative approach to dynamical problems. We argue that measure-theoretical typicality would be the adequate…

One can often encounter claims that classical (Kolmogorovian) probability theory cannot handle, or even is contradicted by, certain empirical findings or substantive theories. This note joins several previous attempts to explain that these…

We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is…

In this paper we put forward the viewpoint that the notion of stress testing financial institutions and engineered systems can also be made viable appropos the stress testing an individual's strength of conviction in a probability…

This paper addresses the central question of what a coherent concept of probability might look like that would do justice to both classical probability theory, axiomatized by Kolmogorov, and quantum theory. At a time when quanta are…

This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and…

Critics object that the Everett view cannot make sense of quantum probabilities, in one or both of two ways: either it cannot make sense of probability at all, or it cannot explain why probability should be governed by the Born rule. David…

In decision theory an act is a function from a set of conditions to the set of real numbers. The set of conditions is a partition in some algebra of events. The expected value of an act can be calculated when a probability measure is given.…

This paper makes a small step towards a non-stochastic version of superhedging duality relations in the case of one traded security with a continuous price path. Namely, we prove the coincidence of game-theoretic and measure-theoretic…

We introduce a "high probability" framework for repeated games with incomplete information. In our non-equilibrium setting, players aim to guarantee a certain payoff with high probability, rather than in expected value. We provide a high…

Exchangeability is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics. It allows to model situations where the order of observations does not matter. The classical de Finetti's theorem provides a representation of infinitely…

We show that the so-called quantum probabilistic rule, usually presented in the physical literature as an argument of the essential distinction between the probability relations under quantum and classical measurements, is not, as it is…

The procedure of tossing quantum coins and dice is described. This case is an important example of a quantum procedure because it presents a typical framework employed in quantum information processing and quantum computing. The emphasis is…

Debates about juridical proof are often framed as a conflict between probabilistic approaches and relative plausibility theory (RPT). This paper argues that this opposition rests on a level-of-analysis error. Drawing on Marr's distinction…

We introduce a novel notion of probability within quantum history theories and give a Gleasonesque proof for these assignments. This involves introducing a tentative novel axiom of probability. We also discuss how we are to interpret these…

This article gives a probabilistic overview of the widely used method of default probability estimation proposed by K. Pluto and D. Tasche. There are listed detailed assumptions and derivation of the inequality where the probability of…

We propose a probabilistic framework for pricing derivatives, which acknowledges that information and beliefs are subjective. Market prices can be translated into implied probabilities. In particular, futures imply returns for these implied…

Traditional interpretations of probability, whether frequentist or subjective, make no reference to the concept of energy. In this paper, we propose that assigning hypothetical energy levels to the outcomes of a random variable can yield…

We discuss problems for convex Bayesian decision making and uncertainty representation. These include the inability to accommodate various natural and useful constraints and the possibility of an analog of the classical Dutch Book being…