相关论文: A Dutch Book theorem for partial subjective probab…

We discuss how the apparently objective probabilities predicted by quantum mechanics can be treated in the framework of Bayesian probability theory, in which all probabilities are subjective. Our results are in accord with earlier work by…

We suggest that one individual holds multiple degrees of belief about an outcome, given the evidence. We then investigate the implications of such noisy probabilities for a buyer and a seller of binary options and find the odds agreed upon…

For better learning, large datasets are often split into small batches and fed sequentially to the predictive model. In this paper, we study such batch decompositions from a probabilistic perspective. We assume that data points (possibly…

The aim of this paper is to firmly establish subjective fiducial inference as a rival to the more conventional schools of statistical inference, and to show that Fisher's intuition concerning the importance of the fiducial argument was…

Standard approaches to probabilistic reasoning require that one possesses an explicit model of the distribution in question. But, the empirical learning of models of probability distributions from partial observations is a problem for which…

In this paper we deal with a new approach to probabilistic reasoning in a logical framework. Nearly almost all logics of probability that have been proposed in the literature are based on classical two-valued logic. After making clear the…

The concept of probability was prominent in the original foundations of quantum mechanics, and continues to be so today. Indeed, the controversies regarding objective and subjective interpretations of probability have again become active. I…

Inspired by the theory of desirable gambles that is used to model uncertainty in the field of imprecise probabilities, I present a theory of desirable things. Its aim is to model a subject's beliefs about which things are desirable. What…

Contextuality is a central feature distinguishing quantum from classical probability theories, but its operational meaning is often stated only qualitatively. In this Letter, we study a simple information-theoretic question: how much…

Verbal probability phrases are often used to express estimated risk. In this study, focus was on the numerical interpretation of 29 Dutch probability and frequency phrases, including several complementary phrases to test (a)symmetry in…

We develop a domain-theoretic framework for imprecise probability reasoning and inference on general topological spaces with a countably based continuous lattice of open sets. We address two distinct forms of uncertainty: partial or…

We consider the design of private prediction markets, financial markets designed to elicit predictions about uncertain events without revealing too much information about market participants' actions or beliefs. Our goal is to design market…

In the context of the Sleeping Beauty problem, it has been argued that so-called "halfers" can avoid Dutch book arguments by adopting evidential decision theory. I introduce a Dutch book for a variant of the Sleeping Beauty problem and…

A distinction is sometimes made between "statistical" and "subjective" probabilities. This is based on a distinction between "unique" events and "repeatable" events. We argue that this distinction is untenable, since all events are "unique"…

A number of well-known theorems, such as Cox's theorem and de Finetti's theorem. prove that any model of reasoning with uncertain information that satisfies specified conditions of "rationality" must satisfy the axioms of probability…

Classical countably additive real-valued probabilities come at a philosophical cost: in many infinite situations, they assign the same probability value -- namely, zero -- to cases that are impossible as well as to cases that are possible.…

Both classical and respectively quantum observables can be modeled as somewhat similar examples of random variables. In such a model the associated measurements preserve the values spectrum of an observable but change the corresponding…

The main result presented in this article is that probability can fundamentally be characterized as a subset of conditional expectation induced by a plausible preorder on random quantities. This is justified by the fact that probability is…

We establish an equivalence between two seemingly different theories: one is the traditional axiomatisation of incomplete preferences on horse lotteries based on the mixture independence axiom; the other is the theory of desirable gambles…

I defend an analog of probabilism that characterizes rationally coherent estimates for chances. Specifically, I demonstrate the following accuracy-dominance result for stochastic theories in the C*-algebraic framework: supposing an…