相关论文: A Dutch Book theorem for partial subjective probab…
We recently introduced a bounded rationality approach for the theory of desirable gambles. It is based on the unique requirement that being non-negative for a gamble has to be defined so that it can be provable in polynomial-time. In this…
Completeness and transitivity are standard rationality conditions in economics. However, under ambiguity, decision makers sometimes violate these requirements because of the difficulty of forming accurate predictions about ambiguous events.…
An extended analysis is given of the program, originally suggested by Deutsch, of solving the probability problem in the Everett interpretation by means of decision theory. Deutsch's own proof is discussed, and alternatives are presented…
We introduce a novel logical notion--partial entailment--to propositional logic. In contrast with classical entailment, that a formula P partially entails another formula Q with respect to a background formula set \Gamma intuitively means…
This paper belongs to the field of probabilistic modal logic, focusing on a comparative analysis of two distinct semantics: one rooted in Kripke semantics and the other in neighbourhood semantics. The primary distinction lies in the…
Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…
An approach is presented treating decision theory as a probabilistic theory based on quantum techniques. Accurate definitions are given and thorough analysis is accomplished for the quantum probabilities describing the choice between…
This note proposes a procedure for enhancing the quality of probabilistic prediction algorithms via betting against their predictions. It is inspired by the success of the conformal test martingales that have been developed recently.
I develop the decision-theoretic approach to quantum probability, originally proposed by David Deutsch, into a mathematically rigorous proof of the Born rule in (Everett-interpreted) quantum mechanics. I sketch the argument informally, then…
We give an abstract approach to finite Ramsey theory and prove a general Ramsey-type theorem. We deduce from it a self-dual Ramsey theorem, which is a new result naturally generalizing both the classical Ramsey theorem and the dual Ramsey…
This paper proposes a decision theory for a symbolic generalization of probability theory (SP). Darwiche and Ginsberg [2,3] proposed SP to relax the requirement of using numbers for uncertainty while preserving desirable patterns of…
Bayesian probability theory is used to analyze the oft-made assumption that humans are typical observers in the universe. Some theoretical calculations make the {\it selection fallacy} that we are randomly chosen from a class of objects by…
Probabilistic models require the notion of event space for defining a probability measure. An event space has a probability measure which ensues the Kolmogorov axioms. However, the probabilities observed from distinct sources, such as that…
In this PhD thesis the ancient question of determinism ('Does every event have a cause ?') will be re-examined. In the philosophy of science and physics communities the orthodox position states that the physical world is indeterministic:…
A logic is defined that allows to express information about statistical probabilities and about degrees of belief in specific propositions. By interpreting the two types of probabilities in one common probability space, the semantics given…
We present a domain-theoretic framework for probabilistic programming that provides a constructive definition of conditional probability and addresses computability challenges previously identified in the literature. We introduce a novel…
Semantic composition remains an open problem for vector space models of semantics. In this paper, we explain how the probabilistic graphical model used in the framework of Functional Distributional Semantics can be interpreted as a…
A method for computing probabilistic propositions is presented. It assumes the availability of a single external routine for computing the probability of one instantiated variable, given a conjunction of other instantiated variables. In…
Originally, quantum probability theory was developed to analyze statistical phenomena in quantum systems, where classical probability theory does not apply, because the lattice of measurable sets is not necessarily distributive. On the…
For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe the game will end. The method we develop modifies…