相关论文: Statistical Post-Processing of Forecasts for Extre…

Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation…

We investigate the application of artificial neural networks to stabilize proper orthogonal decomposition based reduced order models for quasi-stationary geophysical turbulent flows. An extreme learning machine concept is introduced for…

Since the start of the operational use of ensemble prediction systems, ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting has become the most advanced approach in weather prediction. However, despite the persistent development of the last three…

The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…

We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…

Accurate precipitation forecasts have a high socio-economic value due to their role in decision-making in various fields such as transport networks and farming. We propose a global statistical postprocessing method for grid-based…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

Extreme shock models have been introduced in Gut and H\"usler (1999) to study systems that at random times are subject to shock of random magnitude. These systems break down when some shock overcomes a given resistance level. In this paper…

Advancements in numerical weather prediction models have accelerated, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of physical phenomena pertaining to the dynamics of weather and related computing resources. Despite these advancements,…

Max-stable processes are increasingly widely used for modelling complex extreme events, but existing fitting methods are computationally demanding, limiting applications to a few dozen variables. $r$-Pareto processes are mathematically…

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…

We propose Space-time in situ postprocessing (STIPP), a machine learning model that generates spatio-temporally consistent weather forecasts for a network of station locations. Gridded forecasts from classical numerical weather prediction…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

We study rates of convergence in central limit theorems for the partial sum of squares of general Gaussian sequences, using tools from analysis on Wiener space. No assumption of stationarity, asymptotically or otherwise, is made. The main…

This paper gives a new representation of Pickands' constants, which arise in the study of extremes for a variety of Gaussian processes. Using this representation, we resolve the long-standing problem of devising a reliable algorithm for…

Contemporary weather forecasts are typically based on ensemble prediction systems, which consist of multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models that vary with respect to in the initial conditions and/or the the parameterization of…

Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…

Aiming to estimate extreme precipitation forecast quantiles, we propose a nonparametric regression model that features a constant extreme value index. Using local linear quantile regression and an extrapolation technique from extreme value…

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…