相关论文: Statistical Post-Processing of Forecasts for Extre…
We present a regime-switching vector-autoregressive method for very-short-term wind speed forecasting at multiple locations with regimes based on large-scale meteorological phenomena. Statistical methods short-term wind forecasting…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Atmospheric trace-gas inversion refers to any technique used to predict spatial and temporal fluxes using mole-fraction measurements and atmospheric simulations obtained from computer models. Studies to date are most often of a…
Weather Forecasting is an attractive challengeable task due to its influence on human life and complexity in atmospheric motion. Supported by massive historical observed time series data, the task is suitable for data-driven approaches,…
Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…
Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have recently undergone rapid improvements. These models are typically trained on gridded reanalysis data from numerical data assimilation systems. However, reanalysis data comes with limitations,…
Max-stable processes have proved to be useful for the statistical modelling of spatial extremes. Several representations of max-stable random fields have been proposed in the literature. For statistical inference it is often assumed that…
Weather and climate forecasts are inherently uncertain due to chaotic dynamics, imperfect initial conditions, and incomplete representation of the underlying physical processes. Operational ensemble forecasts aim to represent these…
Atmosphere modelling applications become increasingly memory-bound due to the inconsistent development rates between processor speeds and memory bandwidth. In this study, we mitigate memory bottlenecks and reduce the computational load of…
While circular data occur in a wide range of scientific fields, the methodology for distributional modeling and probabilistic forecasting of circular response variables is rather limited. Most of the existing methods are built on the…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…
Parametric max-stable processes are increasingly used to model spatial extremes. Starting from the fact that the dependence structure of a max-stable process is completely characterized by an extreme-value copula, a class of goodness-of-fit…
In traditional extreme value analysis, the bulk of the data is ignored, and only the tails of the distribution are used for inference. Extreme observations are specified as values that exceed a threshold or as maximum values over distinct…
Weather forecasting presents several challenges, including the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the high computational demands of numerical weather prediction models. To achieve the most accurate predictions, the ideal scenario involves…
Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use…
In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…
The Lorenz equations [1] are a severe Galerkin-truncation of the Oberbeck-Boussinesq (OB) equations describing Rayleigh-B\'enard convection (RBC). Here we examine the mathematical connections between the chaotic lobe-switching behavior of a…