相关论文: Approximation of high quantiles from intermediate …

For the basic maximum likelihood estimating function of the two parameters Weibull distribution, a simple proof on its global monotonicity is given to ensure the existence and uniqueness of its solution. The boundary of the function's…

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…

We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

In high-dimensions, the prior tails can have a significant effect on both posterior computation and asymptotic concentration rates. To achieve optimal rates while keeping the posterior computations relatively simple, an empirical Bayes…

We extend the theory of concentration inequalities to simple random tensors with heavy-tailed coefficients. Specifically, we consider the class of sub-Weibull distributions $\mathcal{S}_\alpha$ for $\alpha \in [1, 2]$. We establish…

We provide bounds on the tail probabilities for simple procedures that generate random samples _without replacement_, when the probabilities of being selected need not be equal.

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

In many practical situations exploratory plots are helpful in understanding tail behavior of sample data. The Mean Excess plot is often applied in practice to understand the right tail behavior of a data set. It is known that if the…

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

Quantile regression (QR) relies on the estimation of conditional quantiles and explores the relationships between independent and dependent variables. At high probability levels, classical QR methods face extrapolation difficulties due to…

An explicit upper bound on the tail probabilities for the normalized Rademacher sums is given. This bound, which is best possible in a certain sense, is asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding tail probability of the standard normal…

The class of subweibull distributions has recently been shown to generalize the important properties of subexponential and subgaussian random variables. We describe alternative characterizations of subweibull distributions and detail the…

We present a general non-parametric statistical inference theory for integrals of quantiles without assuming any specific sampling design or dependence structure. Technical considerations are accompanied by examples and discussions,…

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be some i.i.d. observations from a heavy tailed distribution $F$, i.e. such that the common distribution of the excesses over a high threshold $u_n$ can be approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution…

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

Understanding random open quantum systems is critical for characterizing the performance of large-scale quantum devices and exploring macroscopic quantum phenomena. Various features in these systems, including spectral distributions, gap…

In this work, we investigate how to develop sharp concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables, including sub-Gaussian and sub-exponential distributions. Although the random variables may not be sub-Guassian, the tail…