相关论文: Approximation of high quantiles from intermediate …

High-dimensional covariance estimation is notoriously sensitive to outliers. While statistically optimal estimators exist for general heavy-tailed distributions, they often rely on computationally expensive techniques like semidefinite…

The average properties of the well-known Subset Sum Problem can be studied by the means of its randomised version, where we are given a target value $z$, random variables $X_1, \ldots, X_n$, and an error parameter $\varepsilon > 0$, and we…

In this paper, we consider a classic problem concerning the high excursion probabilities of a Gaussian random field $f$ living on a compact set $T$. We develop efficient computational methods for the tail probabilities $P(\sup_T f(t) > b)$…

We deal with a general class of extreme-value regression models introduced by Barreto- Souza and Vasconcellos (2011). Our goal is to derive an adjusted likelihood ratio statistic that is approximately distributed as \c{hi}2 with a high…

We establish a rather sharp two-side estimate for the tail probability of the derivative martingale limit in a branching random walk throughout the entire subcritical regime, confirming a conjecture by Lacoin, Rhodes, and Vargas (\emph{Duke…

The total number of fatalities of an epidemic outbreak is a dramatic but extremely informative quantity. Knowledge of the statistics of this quantity allows the calculation of the mean total number of fatalities conditioned to the fact that…

The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…

We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…

In this paper a result of Latala about the tail behavior of Gaussian polynomials will be discussed. Latala proved an interesting result about this problem in paper [2]. But his proof applied an incorrect statement at a crucial point. Hence…

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…

For each probability distribution on a countable alphabet, a sequence of positive functionals are developed as tail indices based on Turing's perspective. By and only by the asymptotic behavior of these indices, domains of attraction for…

Both parametric distribution functions appearing in extreme value theory - the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution - have log-concave densities if the extreme value index gamma is in [-1,0].…

We study the behavior of the tail probabilities $P(V^2<r)$ as $r\to 0$, where $V^2$ is defined by the following double sum $$ V^2 =\pi^{-4}\,\sum\limits_{i,j\ge 1} \Big((i+b)\,(j + \delta)\Big)^{-2}\,\xi_{ij}^2,$$ where $ \{\xi_{ij}\} $ are…

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) constructs approximate posteriors of the form $q(\theta) = \int k(\theta | z) r(dz)$, where the conditional kernel is parameterized and the mixing base is fixed and tractable. This paper develops a…

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their natural multivariate generalizations, we give exact formulas…

We obtain asymptotic approximations for the probability density function of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances. As a consequence, we deduce asymptotic approximations for the…

In this paper non-asymptotic exponential estimates are derived for tail of maximum martingale distribution by naturally norming in the spirit of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm. Key words: Martingales, exponential estimations,…

In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…