相关论文: A Time-Scale Variational Approach to Inflation, Un…

This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…

We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…

The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…

Managing unemployment is one of the key issues in social policies. Unemployment insurance schemes are designed to cushion the financial and morale blow of loss of job but also to encourage the unemployed to seek new jobs more pro-actively…

In this paper we apply a time series based Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) approach to the problem of predicting unemployment insurance claims in different census regions of the United States. Unemployment insurance claims data, reported…

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The…

The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor…

How should central banks optimally aggregate sectoral inflation rates in the presence of imperfect labor mobility across sectors? We study this issue in a two-sector New-Keynesian model and show that a lower degree of sectoral labor…

Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in…

The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since.…

In this paper, we are interested to focus on the critical periods in the economy which are characterized by large fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators. To capture unusual and large fluctuations of inflation and unemployment, we…

We discuss an optimal investment, consumption and insurance problem of a wage earner under inflation. Assume a wage earner investing in a real money account and three asset prices, namely: a real zero coupon bond, the inflation-linked real…

A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models…

The following measures against unemployment are proposed: In the short term, to promote greater income for the poorest sectors. It is shown that this can be paid with the resulting increased production, without losing income to the other…

We propose a new approach to investigate inflation in a model-independent way, and in particular to elaborate the involved observables, through the introduction of the "scale factor potential". Through its use one can immediately determine…

Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…

An empirical model is presented linking inflation and unemployment rate to the change in the level of labour force in Switzerland. The involved variables are found to be cointegrated and we estimate lagged linear deterministic relationships…

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…

In a recent work (Chattopadhyay, A. K. et al, Europhys. Lett. {\bf 91}, 58003, 2010) based on food consumption statistics, we showed how a stochastic agent based model could represent the time variation of the income distribution statistics…

The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce…