相关论文: Integrating influenza antigenic dynamics with mole…

Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets…

This study applied Bayesian optimization likelihood-free inference(BOLFI) to virus dynamics experimental data and efficiently inferred the model parameters with uncertainty measure. The computational benefit is remarkable compared to…

Complex networks have established themselves along the last years as being particularly suitable and flexible for representing and modeling several complex natural and human-made systems. At the same time in which the structural intricacies…

We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns. We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous in all…

RNA viruses provide prominent examples of measurably evolving populations. In HIV infection, the development of drug resistance is of particular interest, because precise predictions of the outcome of this evolutionary process are a…

A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…

Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the…

The immune response to an acute primary infection is a coupled process of antigen proliferation, molecular recognition by naive B cells, and their subsequent proliferation and antibody shedding. This process contains a fundamental problem:…

Population dynamics and evolutionary genetics underly the structure of ecosystems, changing on the same timescale for interacting species with rapid turnover, such as virus (e.g. HIV) and immune response. Thus, an important problem in…

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…

Evolution has fascinated quantitative and physical scientists for decades: how can the random process of mutation, recombination, and duplication of genetic information generate the diversity of life? What determines the rate of evolution?…

When simulating biological populations under different evolutionary genetic models, backward or forward strategies can be followed. Backward simulations, also called coalescent-based simulations, are computationally very efficient. However,…

Surveillance data serving for epidemic alert systems are typically fully aggregated in space. However, epidemics may be spatially heterogeneous, undergoing distinct dynamics in distinct regions of the surveillance area. We unveil this in…

Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…

The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…

Coevolutionary arms races form between interacting populations that constitute each other's environment and respond to mutual changes. This inherently far-from-equilibrium process finds striking manifestations in the adaptive immune system,…

The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter $R_0$, whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, $R_0$ may change over…

Within the human respiratory tract (HRT), viruses diffuse through the periciliary fluid (PCF) bathing the epithelium, and travel upwards via advection towards the nose and mouth, as the mucus escalator entrains the PCF. While many…

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…