相关论文: Predicting economic growth with classical physics …

Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a 'characteristic' time-course for the evolution of social complexity…

Stochastic processes with renewal properties are powerful tools for modeling systems where memory effects and long-time correlations play a significant role. In this work, we study a broad class of renewal processes where a variable's value…

Growth in the global human population this century will have momentous consequences for societies and the environment. Population growth has come with higher aggregate human welfare, but also climate change and biodiversity loss. Based on…

Ecological and evolutionary processes show various population dynamics depending on internal interactions and environmental changes. While crucial in predicting biological processes, discovering general relations for such nonlinear dynamics…

This paper is concerned with an analysis of the dynamics of a non-autonomous, single population age based growth model with harvesting formulation. First, we derive sufficient conditions for permanence and positive invariance. Then, by…

We consider a general class of Markovian models describing the growth in a randomly fluctuating environment of a clonal biological population having several phenotypes related by stochastic switching. Phenotypes differ e.g. by the level of…

We propose a stylized model of a complex economy to explore the economic tradeoffs imposed by the so called "green transition" -- the shift towards more sustainable production paradigms -- using tools from the Statistical Mechanics of…

Are the sciences not advancing at an ever increasing speed? We contrast this popular perspective with the view that science funding may actually see diminishing returns, at least regarding established fields. In order to stimulate a larger…

Research on student progression in higher education has traditionally focused on vertical outcomes such as persistence and dropout, often reducing complex academic histories to binary indicators. While the structural component of horizontal…

We construct a stochastic dynamical systems theory in which sustainability is a structural boundary property of a fully coupled Earth--Human--Production system. Each subsystem is modelled as a vector-valued process governed by stochastic…

In the modern knowledge economy, success demands sustained focus and high cognitive performance. Research suggests that human cognition is linked to a finite resource, and upon its depletion, cognitive functions such as self-control and…

Biological aging is characterized by an age-dependent increase in the probability of death and by a decrease in the reproductive capacity. Individual age-dependent rates of survival and reproduction have a strong impact on population…

We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the…

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in populations, be it alive such as animals and cells or inanimate such as goods and money. But their ability to move, crucial to cope with uncertainty and optimize…

This chapter focuses on variable maturation delay or, more precisely, on the mathematical description of a size-structured population consuming an unstructured resource. When the resource concentration is a known function of time, we can…

We investigate the statistics of the time taken for a system driven by recruitment to reach fixation. Our model describes a series of experiments where a population is confronted with two identical options, resulting in the system fixating…

Resource are often not uniformly distributed within a population. Spatial variations of concentration of a resource, change the fitness of competing strategies locally. The notion of fitness varying with respect to both genotype and…

The dependence of world GDP on current energy consumption and total energy produced over the previous period and materialized in the form of production infrastructure is studied. The dependence describes empirical data with high accuracy…

Economic transformation -- change in what an economy produces -- is foundational to development and rising standards of living. Our understanding of this process has been propelled recently by two branches of work in the field of economic…

In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of…