相关论文: Stratified Analysis of `Probabilities of Causation…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Probabilities of causation play a crucial role in modern decision-making. Pearl defined three binary probabilities of causation, the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Many legal cases require decisions about causality, responsibility or blame, and these may be based on statistical data. However, causal inferences from such data are beset by subtle conceptual and practical difficulties, and in general it…

We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…

The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probabilities of causation when treatment and effect are not binary. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of…

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Probabilities of causation are fundamental to individual-level explanation and decision making, yet they are inherently counterfactual and not point-identifiable from data in general. Existing bounds either disregard available covariates,…

This paper deals with the problem of learning the probabilities of causation of subpopulations given finite population data. The tight bounds of three basic probabilities of causation, the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the…

Statisticians have warned us since the early days of their discipline that experimental correlation between two observations by no means implies the existence of a causal relation. The question about what clues exist in observational data…

Ibeling et al. (2023). axiomatize increasingly expressive languages of causation and probability, and Mosse et al. (2024) show that reasoning (specifically the satisfiability problem) in each causal language is as difficult, from a…

Probabilities of causation play a central role in modern decision making. Tian and Pearl first introduced formal definitions and derived tight bounds for three binary probabilities of causation, such as the probability of necessity and…

Given empirical evidence for the dependence of an outcome variable on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the "probability of causation" in the case of an individual who has developed the outcome after being…

We propose a new method of discovering causal relationships in temporal data based on the notion of causal compression. To this end, we adopt the Pearlian graph setting and the directed information as an information theoretic tool for…

Probabilities of causation play a crucial role in modern decision-making. This paper addresses the challenge of predicting probabilities of causation for subpopulations with insufficient data using machine learning models. Tian and Pearl…

Probabilities of causation provide principled ways to assess causal relationships but face computational challenges due to partial identifiability and latent confounding. This paper introduces both algorithmic simplifications, significantly…

To evaluate a single cause of a binary effect, Dawid et al. (2014) defined the probability of causation, while Pearl (2015) defined the probabilities of necessity and sufficiency. For assessing the multiple correlated causes of a binary…

We study the complexity of satisfiability problems in probabilistic and causal reasoning. Given random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ over finite domains, the basic terms are probabilities of propositional formulas over atomic events $X_i =…

The concept of Probability of Causation (PC) is critically important in legal contexts and can help in many other domains. While it has been around since 1986, current operationalizations can obtain only the minimum and maximum values of…

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. In this paper we present methods for computing the probabilities of such…