相关论文: Statistical anomalies in 2011-2012 Russian electio…
The reports of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections brought into the center of public attention concerns related to the ability of foreign actors to increase social discord and take advantage of personal user data for…
Analysis of vote distributions using current tools from statistical physics is of increasing interest. While data considered for physics studies are subject to a careful understanding of error sources, such analysis are almost absent in…
Electoral results show universal features, such as statistics of candidates' performance and turnout rates, in different countries and over time. Are voters as predictable as atoms?
The official data provided by "Central Election Commission" was analyzed, revealing irregularities that raised reasonable suspicion of election manipulation by the winning ``Georgian Dream Party." However, these suspicions alone were…
We study a model of electoral accountability and selection whereby heterogeneous voters aggregate incumbent politician's performance data into personalized signals through paying limited attention. Extreme voters' signals exhibit an…
On February 7, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a two-hour interview with conservative political commentator, Tucker Carlson. This study investigated the impact of the Carlson- Putin interview on the US X audience. We proposed a…
With a majority of 'Yes' votes in the Constitutional Referendum of 2017, Turkey continues its transition from democracy to autocracy. By the will of the Turkish people, this referendum transferred practically all executive power to…
Statistical comparisons of electoral variables are made between groups of electronic voting machines and voting centers classified by types of transmissions according to the volume of traffic in incoming and outgoing data of machines from…
The onset of the Russo-Ukrainian crisis has led to the rapid depreciation of the Russian ruble. In this study, we model intraday price fluctuations of the USD/RUB and the EUR/RUB exchange rates from the $1^{st}$ of December 2021 to the…
In this paper, we propose a robust election simulation model and independently developed election anomaly detection algorithm that demonstrates the simulation's utility. The simulation generates artificial elections with similar properties…
This study examines the relationship between ambiguity and the ideological positioning of political parties across the political spectrum. We identify a strong non-monotonic (inverted U-shaped) relationship between party ideology and…
Post-election audits use the discrepancy between machine counts and a hand tally of votes in a random sample of precincts to infer whether error affected the electoral outcome. The maximum relative overstatement of pairwise margins (MRO)…
Voter fraud in the United States is rare and the vote-counting system is robust against tampering, but there remains widespread distrust in the security of election infrastructure among the public. We consider statistical means of detecting…
Ranked-choice voting anomalies such as monotonicity paradoxes have been extensively studied through creating hypothetical examples and generating elections under various models of voter behavior. However, very few real-world examples of…
Approximately 50% of tweets in X's user timelines are personalized recommendations from accounts they do not follow. This raises a critical question: What political content are users exposed to beyond their established networks, and what…
How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical…
Starting with the 2004 recall referendum, an important opposition sector to President Chavez has questioned the integrity of the Venezuelan electoral system, and casts doubt on the legitimacy and impartiality of the upcoming 2012…
Elections for public offices in democratic nations are large-scale examples of collective decision-making. As a complex system with a multitude of interactions among agents, we can anticipate that universal macroscopic patterns could emerge…
Divided Government is nowadays a common feature of the U.S. political system. The voters can cast partisan ballots for two political powers the executive (Presidential elections) and the legislative (the Congress election). Some recent…
This paper is a corrigendum and addendum to the previously published article: 'How Populist are Parties? Measuring Degrees of Populism in Party Manifestos Using Supervised Machine Learning' (Political Analysis, 1-17.…