相关论文: Elections and statistics: the case of "United Russ…

In this paper, I review the main trends in voting in national elections in Russia since 1991, discuss the evidence of manipulation or falsification by the authorities, and use statistical techniques to examine the determinants of voting…

Here we perform a statistical analysis of the official data from recent Russian parliamentary and presidential elections (held on December 4th, 2011 and March 4th, 2012, respectively). A number of anomalies are identified that persistently…

There is a lot of statistical researches of Russian elections 04.12.2011. The purpose of this activity is to give a mathematical proof of large falsifications and to estimate possible 'real results of elections'. My purpose is to show that…

We study the anomalous prevalence of integer percentages in the last parliamentary (2016) and presidential (2018) Russian elections. We show how this anomaly in Russian federal elections has evolved since 2000.

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, that each citizen's vote should count equal. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large…

Social media platforms allow users to create polls to gather public opinion on diverse topics. However, we know little about what such polls are used for and how reliable they are, especially in significant contexts like elections. Focusing…

We hypothesize that if election results are manipulated or forged, then, due to the well-known human attraction to round numbers, the frequency of reported round percentages can be increased. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed raw data…

Election data represent a precious source of information to study human behavior at a large scale. In proportional elections with open lists, the number of votes received by a candidate, rescaled by the average performance of all…

While the polls have been the most trusted source for election predictions for decades, in the recent presidential election they were called inaccurate and biased. How inaccurate were the polls in this election and can social media beat the…

With historic misses in the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections, interest in measuring polling errors has increased. The most common method for measuring directional errors and non-sampling excess variability during a postmortem for an…

Voter fraud in the United States is rare and the vote-counting system is robust against tampering, but there remains widespread distrust in the security of election infrastructure among the public. We consider statistical means of detecting…

Since the 1970s there has been a large number of countries that combine formal democratic institutions with authoritarian practices. Although in such countries the ruling elites may receive considerable voter support they often employ…

Electronic and remote voting has become a large field of research and brought forth a multiplicity of schemes, systems, cryptographic primitives as well as formal definitions and requirements for electronic elections. In this survey we try…

Online data has the potential to transform how researchers and companies produce election forecasts. Social media surveys, online panels and even comments scraped from the internet can offer valuable insights into political preferences.…

There is an increasing supply and demand for political advertising throughout the world. At the same time, societal threats, such as election interference by foreign governments and other bad actors, continues to be a pressing concern in…

Social media, once hailed as a vehicle for democratization and the promotion of positive social change across the globe, are under attack for becoming a tool of political manipulation and spread of disinformation. A case in point is the…

This aim of this article is to explore the potential use of Wikipedia page view data for predicting electoral results. Responding to previous critiques of work using socially generated data to predict elections, which have argued that these…

The integrity of democratic political discourse is at the core to guarantee free and fair elections. With social media often dictating the tones and trends of politics-related discussion, it is of paramount important to be able to study…

During the last years, statistical physics has received an increasing attention as a framework for the analysis of real complex systems; yet, this is less clear in the case of international political events, partly due to the complexity in…

Many studies suggest that LLMs have left wing leans. The article extends previous analysis of US presidential elections considering several virtual elections in multiple European countries. The analysis considers multiple LLMs and the…