相关论文: Edge-based compartmental modeling for epidemic spr…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
A standard model for epidemics is the SIR model on a graph. We introduce a simple algorithm that uses the early infection times from a sample path of the SIR model to estimate the parameters this model, and we provide a performance…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…
The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although…
The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to…
Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
Compartmental models are the most widely used framework for modeling infectious diseases. These models have been continuously refined to incorporate all the realistic mechanisms that can shape the course of an epidemic outbreak. Building on…
We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…