相关论文: The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns

We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…

The recurrence times between extreme events have been the central point of statistical analyses in many different areas of science. Simultaneously, the Poincar\'e recurrence time has been extensively used to characterize nonlinear dynamical…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both a disjoint and a sliding blocks estimator for…

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

It will be discussed the statistics of the extreme values in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it will be considered the results of numerical analyses concerning the return…

The rate of uniform convergence in extreme value statistics is non-universal and can be arbitrarily slow. Further, the relative error can be unbounded in the tail of the approximation, leading to difficulty in extrapolating the extreme…

Fluctuations of global additive quantities, like total energy or magnetization for instance, can in principle be described by statistics of sums of (possibly correlated) random variables. Yet, it turns out that extreme values (the largest…

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

The Extremal Index is a parameter that measures the intensity of clustering of rare events and is usually equal to the reciprocal of the mean of the limiting cluster size distribution. We show how to build dynamically generated stochastic…

Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approx- imations of the optimal density leading to a nearly zero-variance estimator. This paper presents a new way to handle the estimation of the…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…

Extreme value functionals of stochastic processes are inverse functionals of the first passage time -- a connection that renders their probability distribution functions equivalent. Here, we deepen this link and establish a framework for…