相关论文: The probability of the Alabama paradox

We consider the sequential composite binary hypothesis testing problem in which one of the hypotheses is governed by a single distribution while the other is governed by a family of distributions whose parameters belong to a known set…

This paper develops a hybrid likelihood (HL) method based on a compromise between parametric and nonparametric likelihoods. Consider the setting of a parametric model for the distribution of an observation $Y$ with parameter $\theta$.…

Recently probabilistic hysteresis in isolated Hamiltonian systems of ultracold atoms has been studied in the limit of large particle numbers, where a semiclassical treatment is adequate. The origin of irreversibility in these sweep…

Simpson's paradox is an obstacle to establishing a probabilistic association between two events $a_1$ and $a_2$, given the third (lurking) random variable $B$. We focus on scenarios when the random variables $A$ (which combines $a_1$,…

Condorcet's paradox is a fundamental result in social choice theory which states that there exist elections in which, no matter which candidate wins, a majority of voters prefer a different candidate. In fact, even if we can select any $k$…

We propose currently feasible experiments using small, isolated systems of ultracold atoms to investigate the effects of dynamical chaos in the microscopic onset of irreversibility. A control parameter is tuned past a critical value, then…

Simpson's paradox, a long-standing statistical phenomenon, describes the reversal of an observed association when data are disaggregated into sub-populations. It has critical implications across statistics, epidemiology, economics, and…

Spontaneous symmetry breaking is a fundamental notion in modern physics, ranging from high energy to condensed matter. However, the usual spontaneous symmetry breaking only considers the equal probability to select the vacua. In this work,…

If the edges of the complete graph $K_n$ are totally ordered, a simple path whose edges are in ascending order is called increasing. The worst-case length of the longest increasing path has remained an open problem for several decades, with…

The apportionment problem asks how to assign representation to states based on their populations. That is, given census data and a fixed number of seats, how many seats should each state be assigned? Various algorithms exist to solve the…

It is well known that symplectic methods have been rigorously shown to be superior to non-symplectic ones especially in long-time computation, when applied to deterministic Hamiltonian systems. In this paper, we attempt to study the…

We consider a generic system composed of a fixed number of particles distributed over a finite number of energy levels. We make only general assumptions about system's properties and the entropy. System's constraints other than fixed number…

In parliamentary elections, parties compete for a limited, typically fixed number of seats. Most parliaments are assembled using apportionment methods that distribute the seats based on the parties' vote counts. Common apportionment methods…

The disjunction effect in human decision making is often taken to show that the classical law of total probability is violated, motivating quantum-like models. We re-examine this claim for the Prisoner's Dilemma disjunction effect. Under…

In this paper we study a Hamiltonian system with a spatially asymmetric potential. We are interested in the effects on the dynamics when the potential becomes symmetric slowly in time. We focus on a highly simplified non-trivial model…

We study a generalisation of Simpson reversal (also known as Simpson's paradox or the Yule-Simpson effect) to $2 \times 2 \times 2$ contingency tables and characterise the cases for which it can and cannot occur with two…

The Schnorr-Stimm dichotomy theorem concerns finite-state gamblers that bet on infinite sequences of symbols taken from a finite alphabet $\Sigma$. In this paper we use the Kullback-Leibler divergence to formulate the $\textit{lower…

A convenient framework for dealing with asymptotic limit problems of probabilistic nature is provided. These problems include questions such as finding the asymptotic proportion of terms of a sequence falling inside a given interval, or the…

Classical countably additive real-valued probabilities come at a philosophical cost: in many infinite situations, they assign the same probability value -- namely, zero -- to cases that are impossible as well as to cases that are possible.…

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic error distributions of symplectic methods for stochastic Hamiltonian systems and further provide Hamiltonian-specific analysis that clarifies the superiority of symplectic methods. Our…