相关论文: Hedging Effectiveness under Conditions of Asymmetr…

This paper examines the volatility and covariance dynamics of cash and futures contracts that underlie the Optimal Hedge Ratio (OHR) across different hedging time horizons. We examine whether hedge ratios calculated over a short term…

Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying…

This study investigates the impacts of asymmetry on the modeling and forecasting of realized volatility in the Japanese futures and spot stock markets. We employ heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models allowing for three types of…

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…

This paper explores the implications of producing forecast distributions that are optimized according to scoring rules that are relevant to financial risk management. We assess the predictive performance of optimal forecasts from…

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of a dynamic moving window OLS hedging model, formed using wavelet decomposed time-series. The wavelet transform is applied to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio…

Reducing financial risk is of paramount importance to investors, financial institutions, and corporations. Since the pioneering contribution of Johnson (1960), the optimal hedge ratio based on futures is regularly utilized. The current…

Shorting for hedging exposes to risk when the market dynamics is uncertain. Managing uncertainty and risk exposure is key in portfolio management practice. This paper develops a robust framework for dynamic minimum-variance hedging that…

In this study, we constitute an adaptive hedging method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to extract the adaptive hedging horizon and build a time series cross-validation method for robust hedging performance estimation.…

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

We propose a new risk sensitive reinforcement learning approach for the dynamic hedging of options. The approach focuses on the minimization of the tail risk of the final P&L of the seller of an option. Different from most existing…

This paper aims to investigate the role of gold as a hedge and/or safe haven against oil price and currency market movements for medium (calm period) and large (extreme movement) fluctuations. In revisiting the role of gold, our study…

In the heteroscedastic linear model, the weighted least squares (WLS) estimate of the model coefficients is more efficient than the ordinary least squares (OLS) esti- mate. However, the practical application of WLS is challenging because it…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for…

The studied model was suggested to design a perfect hedging strategy for a large trader. In this case the implementation of a hedging strategy affects the price of the underlying security. The feedback-effect leads to a nonlinear version of…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation at high confidence levels is inherently a rare-event problem and is particularly sensitive to tail behavior and model misspecification. This paper studies the performance of two simulation-based VaR estimation…

``When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure'', this adage is known as {\it Goodhart's law}. In this paper, we investigate formally this law and prove that it critically depends on the tail distribution of the…

This paper compares the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of several models for computing the tail risk of one-month and one-year electricity futures contracts traded in the NordPool, French, German, and Spanish markets in 2008-2017.…