相关论文: Hedging Effectiveness under Conditions of Asymmetr…

This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…

We analyze the errors arising from discrete readjustment of the hedging portfolio when hedging options in exponential Levy models, and establish the rate at which the expected squared error goes to zero when the readjustment frequency…

Using a two-point correlation technique, we study emergence of market efficiency in the emergent Russian futures market by focusing on lagged correlations. The correlation strength of leader-follower effects in the lagged inter-market…

Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…

The performance of trend following strategies can be ascribed to the difference between long-term and short-term realized variance. We revisit this general result and show that it holds for various definitions of trend strategies. This…

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

The third moment variation of a financial asset return process is defined by the quadratic covariation between the return and square return processes. The skew and fat tail risk of an underlying asset can be hedged using a third moment…

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization remains challenging when models simultaneously encounter correlation shifts across environments and diversity shifts driven by rare or hard samples. Existing invariant risk minimization (IRM) methods…

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…

We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…

Quadratic hedging of option payoffs generates the variance optimal martingale measure. When an option features an exercise policy and its cash flows are hedged according to this approach, it may be tempting to optimize such a policy under…

Estimation and inference in statistics pose significant challenges when data are collected adaptively. Even in linear models, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator may fail to exhibit asymptotic normality for single coordinate…

We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…

This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather…

We construct a two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model that captures asymmetric self- and cross-excitation in and between left- and right-tail extreme values within a time series. We demonstrate its applicability by investigating…

What is the best market-neutral implementation of classical Equity Factors? Should one use the specific predictability of the short-leg to build a zero beta Long-Short portfolio, in spite of the specific costs associated to shorting, or is…

The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…

Average calibration of the (variance-based) prediction uncertainties of machine learning regression tasks can be tested in two ways: one is to estimate the calibration error (CE) as the difference between the mean absolute error (MSE) and…

This paper contributes to answering a question that is of crucial importance in risk management and extreme value theory: How to select the threshold above which one assumes that the tail of a distribution follows a generalized Pareto…

We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any…