相关论文: Risk, VaR, CVaR and their associated Portfolio Opt…

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…

Planning through crowded environments under uncertain obstacle motions remains difficult, as stochastic interactions often induce overly conservative behavior or reduced efficiency. To address this challenge, we propose an end-to-end risk…

Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their natural multivariate generalizations, we give exact formulas…

This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…

In this paper, we are concerned with the optimization of a dynamic investment portfolio when the securities which follow a multivariate Merton model with dependent jumps are periodically invested and proceed by approximating the…

In this paper, we introduce two alternative extensions of the classical univariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) in a multivariate setting. The two proposed multivariate VaR are vector-valued measures with the same dimension as the underlying risk…

Using daily returns of the S&P 500 stocks from 2001 to 2011, we perform a backtesting study of the portfolio optimization strategy based on the extreme risk index (ERI). This method uses multivariate extreme value theory to minimize the…

This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE),…

This paper investigates an optimal investment problem under the tail Value at Risk (tail VaR, also known as expected shortfall, conditional VaR, average VaR) and portfolio insurance constraints confronted by a defined-contribution pension…

We discuss the use of saddlepoint methods in the analysis of portfolios, with particular reference to credit portfolios. The objective is to proceed from a model of the loss distribution, given through probabilities, correlations and the…

We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where…

Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional…

In order to estimate the conditional risk of a portfolio's return, two strategies can be advocated. A multivariate strategy requires estimating a dynamic model for the vector of risk factors, which is often challenging, when at all…

The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in…

This paper extends the utility maximization literature by combining partial information and (robust) regulatory constraints. Partial information is characterized by the fact that the stock price itself is observable by the optimizing…

Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…

This paper explores the applications of the 20/60/20 rule-a heuristic method that segments data into top-performing, average-performing, and underperforming groups-in mathematical finance. We review the statistical foundations of this rule…

Wrong-way risk in counterparty and funding exposures is most dramatic in the situations of systemic crises and tails events. A consistent model of wrong-way risk (WWR) is developed here with the probability-weighted addition of tail events…

Risk forecasts drive trading constraints and capital allocation, yet losses are nonstationary and regime-dependent. This paper studies sequential one-sided VaR control via conformal calibration. I propose regime-weighted conformal risk…

In finance, sequential decision problems are often faced, for which reinforcement learning (RL) emerges as a promising tool for optimisation without the need of analytical tractability. However, the objective of classical RL is the expected…