相关论文: Risk, VaR, CVaR and their associated Portfolio Opt…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is one of the main regulatory tools used for risk management purposes. However, it is difficult to compute optimal VaR portfolios; that is, an optimal risk-reward portfolio allocation using VaR as the risk measure. This…

The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…

We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

In this paper, we study the continuous-time multi-asset mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection using a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm, specifically the soft actor-critic (SAC) algorithm, in the time-varying financial market. A family…

${\rm CoVaR}$ is one of the most important measures of financial systemic risks. It is defined as the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another financial portfolio being at risk. In this paper we first develop a Monte-Carlo…

We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…

A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…

For the past two decades investors have observed long memory and highly correlated behavior of asset classes that does not fit into the framework of Modern Portfolio Theory. Custom correlation and standard deviation estimators consider…

Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…

We consider the problem of risk diversification of $\alpha$-stable heavy tailed risks. We study the behaviour of the aggregated Value-at-Risk, with particular reference to the impact of different tail dependence structures on the limits to…

In this work, we address risk-averse Bayes-adaptive reinforcement learning. We pose the problem of optimising the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the total return in Bayes-adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). We show that a policy…

Optimal portfolio allocation is often formulated as a constrained risk problem, where one aims to minimize a risk measure subject to some performance constraints. This paper presents new Bayesian Optimization algorithms for such constrained…

Hybrid quantum/classical variational algorithms can be implemented on noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers and can be used to find solutions for combinatorial optimization problems. Approaches discussed in the literature minimize the…

Real-time coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) is crucial for regulating the voltage profile in distribution grids. By capitalizing on a scalable neural network (NN) architecture, one can attain decentralized DER decisions to…

We propose a new testing procedure about the tail weight parameter of multivariate Student $t$ distributions by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology. Our test is asymptotically as efficient as the classical likelihood ratio test, but…

In this paper we study a multi-arm bandit problem in which the quality of each arm is measured by the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) at some level alpha of the reward distribution. While existing works in this setting mainly focus on…

In this paper we introduce a novel approach to risk estimation based on nonlinear factor models - the "StressVaR" (SVaR). Developed to evaluate the risk of hedge funds, the SVaR appears to be applicable to a wide range of investments. Its…

With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed…

Heavy-tailed probability distributions are extremely useful and play a crucial role in modeling different types of financial data sets. This study presents a two-pronged methodology. First, a mixture probability distribution is created by…