相关论文: Predicting Inflation: Professional Experts Versus …

The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…

Statistical postprocessing is used to translate ensembles of raw numerical weather forecasts into reliable probabilistic forecast distributions. In this study, we examine the use of permutation-invariant neural networks for this task. In…

Seamless forecasts are based on a combination of different sources to produce the best possible forecasts. Statistical multimodel postprocessing helps to combine various sources to achieve these seamless forecasts. However, when one of the…

Using the latest observational data, we constrain the inflationary dynamics and the subsequent reheating epoch. Predictions for both phases can be significantly improved by employing numerically computed results compared to the slow-roll…

The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…

This paper applies a recurrent neural network, the LSTM, to forecast inflation. This is an appealing model for time series as it processes each time step sequentially and explicitly learns dynamic dependencies. The paper also explores the…

The problem of aggregating expert forecasts is ubiquitous in fields as wide-ranging as machine learning, economics, climate science, and national security. Despite this, our theoretical understanding of this question is fairly shallow. This…

Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…

This paper tackles challenges in pricing and revenue projections due to consumer uncertainty. We propose a novel data-based approach for firms facing unknown consumer type distributions. Unlike existing methods, we assume firms only observe…

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to…

Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…

Central banks rely on density forecasts from professional surveys to assess inflation risks and communicate uncertainty. A central challenge in using these surveys is irregular participation: forecasters enter and exit, skip rounds, and…

The spread of ensemble weather forecasts contains information about the spread of possible future weather scenarios. But how much information does it contain, and how useful is that information in predicting the probabilities of future…

Inflation is a major determinant for allocation decisions and its forecast is a fundamental aim of governments and central banks. However, forecasting inflation is not a trivial task, as its prediction relies on low frequency, highly…

In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make…

This paper presents a novel approach to electricity price forecasting (EPF) using a pure Transformer model. As opposed to other alternatives, no other recurrent network is used in combination to the attention mechanism. Hence, showing that…

In public discussions of the quality of forecasts, attention typically focuses on the predictive performance in cases of extreme events. However, the restriction of conventional forecast evaluation methods to subsets of extreme observations…

The field of electricity price forecasting has seen significant advances in the last years, including the development of new, more accurate forecast models. These models leverage statistical relationships in previously observed data to…

This study explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to enhance expert forecasting through ensemble learning. Leveraging the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset, we propose a comprehensive…

This paper studies the 2021 U.S. inflation forecasting failure. I show that the failure was primarily driven by sample composition rather than functional-form misspecification: estimation samples dominated by the Great Moderation…