相关论文: Predicting Inflation: Professional Experts Versus …

We introduce Forecasting Argumentation Frameworks (FAFs), a novel argumentation-based methodology for forecasting informed by recent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frameworks which empower (human or artificial) agents…

This paper proposes a framework in which agents are constrained to use simple models to forecast economic variables and characterizes the resulting biases. It considers agents who can only entertain state-space models with no more than d…

We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the…

Contemporary weather forecasts are typically based on ensemble prediction systems, which consist of multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models that vary with respect to in the initial conditions and/or the the parameterization of…

We investigate the possibility of constraining parameters of Effective Field Theory (EFT) of inflation with upcoming Large Scale Structure (LSS) surveys in order to have a better understanding of inflationary dynamics. With the development…

We study the power spectra of f(R) inflation using a new technique in which the norm-squared of the mode functions is evolved. Our technique results in excellent analytic approximations for how the spectra depend upon the function $f(R)$.…

We assess empirical models in climate econometrics using modern statistical learning techniques. Existing approaches are prone to outliers, ignore sample dependencies, and lack principled model selection. To address these issues, we…

We compare probabilistic predictions of extreme temperature anomalies issued by two different forecast schemes. One is a dynamical physical weather model, the other a simple data model. We recall the concept of skill scores in order to…

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

I discuss the current status of inflationary cosmology in light of the recent WMAP 3-year data release. The basic predictions of inflation are all supported by the data. Inflation also makes predictions which have not been well tested by…

This is an old article which has never been posted for public use and which only appeard in a relatively hard-to-get Proceedings of the Sakharov Conference in Moscow (May, 1991). The subject of this article has received a lot of attention…

Financial forecasting is a difficult task due to the intrinsic complexity of the financial system. In the present paper we relate our experience using neural nets as financial time series forecast method. In particular we show that a neural…

This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an…

Forecasting consumer price index (CPI) inflation is of paramount importance for both academics and policymakers at the central banks. This study introduces a filtered ensemble wavelet neural network (FEWNet) to forecast CPI inflation, which…

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems…

We propose an extension of the non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) model by Gneiting et al. (2005) that yields locally calibrated probabilistic forecasts of tem- perature, based on the output of an ensemble prediction system (EPS).…

We provide a comprehensive examination of the predictive performance of panel forecasting methods based on individual, pooling, fixed effects, and empirical Bayes estimation, and propose optimal weights for forecast combination schemes. We…

This study explores the influence of FOMC sentiment on market expectations, focusing on cognitive differences between experts and non-experts. Using sentiment analysis of FOMC minutes, we integrate these insights into a bounded rationality…

While inflation gives an appealing explanation of observed cosmological data, there are a wide range of different inflation models, providing differing predictions for the initial perturbations. Typically models are motivated either by…