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We consider the simple changepoint problem setting, where observations are independent, iid pre-change and iid post-change, with known pre- and post-change distributions. The Shiryaev-Roberts detection procedure is known to be…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-06-07 Moshe Pollak , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We consider a sequential Bayesian changepoint detection problem for a general stochastic model, assuming that the observed data may be dependent and non-identically distributed and the prior distribution of the change point is arbitrary,…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-01-15 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

For the most popular sequential change detection rules such as CUSUM, EWMA, and the Shiryaev-Roberts test, we develop integral equations and a concise numerical method to compute a number of performance metrics, including average detection…

统计计算 · 统计学 2011-09-15 George V. Moustakides , Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

For the classical continuous-time quickest change-point detection problem it is shown that the randomized Shiryaev-Roberts-Pollak procedure is asymptotically nearly minimax-optimal (in the sense of Pollak 1985) in the class of randomized…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-04-12 Aleksey S. Polunchenko

We consider the quickest change-point detection problem in pointwise and minimax settings for general dependent data models. Two new classes of sequential detection procedures associated with the maximal "local" probability of a false alarm…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-01-18 Serguei M. Pergamenchtchikov , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

In 1985, for detecting a change in distribution, Pollak introduced a specific minimax performance metric and a randomized version of the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure where the zero initial condition is replaced by a random variable sampled…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-03-13 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

In 1960s Shiryaev developed Bayesian theory of change detection in independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sequences. In Shiryaev's classical setting the goal is to minimize an average detection delay under the constraint imposed…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-06-07 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

A weighted Shiryaev-Roberts change detection procedure is shown to approximately minimize the expected delay to detection as well as higher moments of the detection delay among all change-point detection procedures with the given low…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-09-04 Serguei Pergamenchtchikov , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We address the sequential change-point detection problem for the Gaussian model where baseline distribution is Gaussian with variance \sigma^2 and mean \mu such that \sigma^2=a\mu, where a>0 is a known constant; the change is in \mu from…

In the 1960s, Shiryaev developed a Bayesian theory of change-point detection in the i.i.d. case, which was generalized in the beginning of the 2000s by Tartakovsky and Veeravalli for general stochastic models assuming a certain stability of…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-07-05 Chen-Der Fuh , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

This paper investigates change point detection in state space models, in which the pre-change distribution $f^{\theta_0}$ is given, while the poster distribution $f^{\theta}$ after change is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon…

概率论 · 数学 2019-06-11 Cheng-Der Fuh

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-vs.-"false-positive"-risk…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-04-21 Wenyu Du , Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Grigory Sokolov

We consider the problem of efficient on-line anomaly detection in computer network traffic. The problem is approached statistically, as that of sequential (quickest) changepoint detection. A multi-cyclic setting of quickest change detection…

应用统计 · 统计学 2013-07-23 Alexander G. Tartakovsky , Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Grigory Sokolov

The paper addresses a sequential changepoint detection problem for a general stochastic model, assuming that the observed data may be non-i.i.d. (i.e., dependent and non-identically distributed) and the prior distribution of the change…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-07-25 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Let \xi_0,\xi_1,...,\xi_{\omega-1} be observations from the hidden Markov model with probability distribution P^{\theta_0}, and let \xi_{\omega},\xi_{\omega+1},... be observations from the hidden Markov model with probability distribution…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Cheng-Der Fuh

We propose a numerical method to evaluate the performance of the emerging Generalized Shiryaev--Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure in a "minimax-ish" multi-cyclic setup where the procedure of choice is applied repetitively…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-12-19 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Grigory Sokolov , Wenyu Du

We derive analytically an exact closed-form formula for the standard minimax Average Run Length (ARL) to false alarm delivered by the Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure devised to detect a shift in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-10-23 Wenyu Du , Grigory Sokolov , Aleksey S. Polunchenko

Assume that there are multiple data streams (channels, sensors) and in each stream the process of interest produces generally dependent and non-identically distributed observations. When the process is in a normal mode (in-control), the…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-07-25 Alexander Tartakovsky

The problem of detecting a change in the drift of a Brownian motion is considered. The change point is assumed to have a modified exponential prior distribution with unknown parameters. A worst-case analysis with respect to these parameters…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-10-11 Taposh Banerjee , George V. Moustakides

Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-12-06 Yang Cao , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie , Huan Xu
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