相关论文: An attempt at reading Keynes' Treatise on Probabil…

An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful for less mathematical readers as a prologue to the classic…

This paper, which is dedicated to Alan Turing on the 50th anniversary of his death, gives an overview and discusses the philosophical implications of incompleteness, uncomputability and randomness.

This is a typeset version of Alan Turing's Second World War research paper \textit{The Applications of Probability to Cryptography}. A companion paper \textit{Paper on Statistics of Repetitions} is also available in typeset form from arXiv…

We are living in the big data era, as current technologies and networks allow for the easy and routine collection of data sets in different disciplines. Bayesian Statistics offers a flexible modeling approach which is attractive for…

Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at the law through the lens of probability theory: "The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and nothing more pretentious, are what I mean by the law." Yet few…

Bayes [Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 53 (1763) 370--418; 54 296--325] introduced the observed likelihood function to statistical inference and provided a weight function to calibrate the parameter; he also introduced a confidence…

In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…

Nested sampling has emerged as a valuable tool for Bayesian analysis, in particular for determining the Bayesian evidence. The method is based on a specific type of random sampling of the likelihood function and prior volume of the…

Probabilities is the English translation of the book Probabilit\'es Tome 1 and Tome 2. The mathematic content is authored by Prof. Jean-Yves Ouvrard. The English version has been done by his eldest son Dr. Xavier Ouvrard. In this first…

There are two main approach to probability, one of set-theoretic character where probability is the measure of a set, and another one of linguistic character where probability is the degree of confidence in a proposition. In this work we…

In spite of its title, the book mostly treats probability theory: the law of large numbers (regarded as a principle); formal definition of a random variable and law of distribution; the misnamed Cauchy distribution; functions now named…

Prentice & Pyke (1979) established that the maximum likelihood estimate of an odds-ratio in a case-control study is the same as would be found by running a logistic regression: in other words, for this specific target the incorrect…

The Bayesian Classification represents a supervised learning method as well as a statistical method for classification. Assumes an underlying probabilistic model and it allows us to capture uncertainty about the model in a principled way by…

A new method is developed to represent probabilistic relations on multiple random events. Where previously knowledge bases containing probabilistic rules were used for this purpose, here a probability distribution over the relations is…

Quantum mechanics is a fundamentally probabilistic theory (at least so far as the empirical predictions are concerned). It follows that, if one wants to properly understand quantum mechanics, it is essential to clearly understand the…

This paper is devoted to Poincar\'e's work in probability. Though the subject does not represent a large part of the mathematician's achievements, it provides significant insight into the evolution of Poincar\'e's thought on several…

In October 2017 the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy's body for official statistics, has published the book of fairy tales Le streghe di Bayes (The witches of Bayes) written by ISTAT staff members with the commendable…

The Search for Certainty was published in 2009 by Krzysztof Burdzy. It examines the "philosophical duopoly" of von Mises and de Finetti at the foundation of probability and statistics and find this duopoly missing. This review exposes the…

I consider the "Quantum Bayesian" view of quantum theory as expounded in a 2006 paper of Caves, Fuchs, and Schack. I argue that one can accept a generally personalist, decision-theoretic view of probability, including probability as…

We develop a systematic approach to quantum probability as a theory of rational betting in quantum gambles. In these games of chance the agent is betting in advance on the outcomes of several (finitely many) incompatible measurements. One…