相关论文: An attempt at reading Keynes' Treatise on Probabil…

We will show that Carl Stumpf's interpretation of the concept of probability is best understood as that of an objective Bayesian. First we analyse Stumpf's work in relation to that of his contemporary Johannes von Kries, and after that we…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…

Ce m\'emoire r\'ealis\'e \`a l'IUFM de Cr\'eteil en 1998 sous la direction d'Evelyne Barbin \'etudie l'histoire du d\'ebut du calcul des probabilit\'es. Sources: correspondance entre Pascal et Fermat, et Trait\'e du triangle arithm\'etique…

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…

Since its introduction in 2001, natural time analysis has been applied to diverse fields with remarkable results. Its validity has not been doubted by any publication to date. Here, we indicate that frequently asked questions on the…

This paper presents a model with the aim to follow, as closely as possible, the rationale of the macroeconomic model advanced by J.M. Keynes in his famous "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money", in order to provide a viable…

The mathematical achievements of Harry Kesten since the mid-1950s have revolutionized probability theory as a subject in its own right and in its associations with aspects of algebra, analysis, geometry, and statistical physics. Through his…

This monograph is an account of the theory of fallible probability and of the dynamics of degrees of belief. It discusses the first order subjective theory in which first order degrees of belief are expressed by subjective probabilities and…

This book chapter (written in French) is a review of the foundations of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference, relating to its historical roots and some philosophical arguments, as well as a short presentation of its practical…

We present a comparative study between classical probability and quantum probability from the Bayesian viewpoint, where probability is construed as our rational degree of belief on whether a given statement is true. From this viewpoint,…

This article analytically describes the contributions of Keynesian theory in the post-World War I context, by means of a synoptic reading of the bibliographical sources indicated, the Keynesian theory within its own historical and…

The paper is devoted to the contribution in the Probability Theory of the well-known Soviet mathematician Alexander Yakovlevich Khintchine (1894-1959). Several of his results are described, in particular those fundamental results on the…

I am presenting a first-ever scientific collection of short sayings on probability and statistics expressed by most various men of science, many classics included, from antiquity to Kepler to our time. Quite understandably, the reader will…

This is a writeup of lectures on "statistics" that have evolved from the initial version for the 2009 Hadron Collider Physics Summer School at CERN to versions for other venues and, most recently, for the African School of Fundamental…

Testing hypotheses is an issue of primary importance in the scientific research, as well as in many other human activities. Much clarification about it can be achieved if the process of learning from data is framed in a stochastic model of…

In spite of the wide range of his book, Cournot did not know some essential discoveries in natural sciences (William Herschel, Daniel Bernoulli, Humboldt) and his deliberations about measurement were almost useless. But he introduced the…

In the past decades, advanced probabilistic methods have had significant impact on the field of finance, both in academia and in the financial industry. Conversely, financial questions have stimulated new research directions in probability.…

Laplace's views on randomness and determinism. The paper was written for "Cahiers rationalistes" and addresses a rather wide audience. It contains large quotations of Laplace, most of them coming from his introduction to the book…

In 1693, Isaac Newton answered a query from Samuel Pepys about a problem involving dice. Newton's analysis is discussed and attention is drawn to an error he made.

Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which…