相关论文: On the minimal penalty for Markov order estimation

Under reasonable algebraic assumptions and under an infinite second order moment assumption, we show that the logarithm of the norm (log-norm) of a product of random i.i.d. matrices with entries in $\mathbb{R}$ or in any other local field…

Let $\cF$ be a set of $M$ classification procedures with values in $[-1,1]$. Given a loss function, we want to construct a procedure which mimics at the best possible rate the best procedure in $\cF$. This fastest rate is called optimal…

We provide a relatively simple proof that the expected gap between the maximum load and the average load in the two choice process is bounded by $(1+o(1))\log \log n$, irrespective of the number of balls thrown. The theorem was first proven…

An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…

We consider the problem of link prediction, based on partial observation of a large network, and on side information associated to its vertices. The generative model is formulated as a matrix logistic regression. The performance of the…

We present sufficient conditions, in terms of the jumping kernels, for two large classes of conservative Markov processes of pure-jump type to be purely discontinuous martingales with finite second moment. As an application, we establish…

We derive a finite-sample probabilistic bound on the parameter estimation error of a system identification algorithm for Linear Switched Systems. The algorithm estimates Markov parameters from a single trajectory and applies a variant of…

We consider the task of estimating a structural model of dynamic decisions by a human agent based upon the observable history of implemented actions and visited states. This problem has an inherent nested structure: in the inner problem, an…

We wish to estimate conditional density using Gaussian Mixture Regression model with logistic weights and means depending on the covariate. We aim at selecting the number of components of this model as well as the other parameters by a…

Combining first-order logic and probability has long been a goal of AI. Markov logic (Richardson & Domingos, 2006) accomplishes this by attaching weights to first-order formulas and viewing them as templates for features of Markov networks.…

We generalize the notion of minimax convergence rate. In contrast to the standard definition, we do not assume that the sample size is fixed in advance. Allowing for varying sample size results in time-robust minimax rates and estimators.…

We can directly sample from the conditional distribution of any log-affine model. The algorithm is a Markov chain on a bounded integer lattice, and its transition probability is the ratio of the UMVUE (uniformly minimum variance unbiased…

Parameter estimation connects mathematical models to real-world data and decision making across many scientific and industrial applications. Standard approaches such as maximum likelihood estimation and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimate…

We show that the log-likelihood of several probabilistic graphical models is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the lp-norm of the parameters. We discuss several implications of Lipschitz parametrization. We present an upper bound of the…

We present two new methods for estimating the order (memory depth) of a finite alphabet Markov chain from observation of a sample path. One method is based on entropy estimation via recurrence times of patterns, and the other relies on a…

The aim of this note is to prove a law of large numbers for local patterns in discrete point processes. We investigate two different situations: a class of point processes on the one dimensional lattice including certain Schur measures, and…

We consider the problem of selecting the best estimator among a family of Tikhonov regularized estimators, or, alternatively, to select a linear combination of these regularizers that is as good as the best regularizer in the family. Our…

Exact approximations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a general emerging class of sampling algorithms. One of the main ideas behind exact approximations consists of replacing intractable quantities required to run standard…

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

We consider a sequence of Markov chains $(\mathcal X^n)_{n=1,2,...}$ with $\mathcal X^n = (X^n_\sigma)_{\sigma\in\mathcal T}$, indexed by the full binary tree $\mathcal T = \mathcal T_0 \cup \mathcal T_1 \cup ...$, where $\mathcal T_k$ is…