相关论文: A Three-Parameter Binomial Approximation

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…

An algorithm is presented that, taking a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter $1/2$ as inputs and using only rational arithmetic, simulates a Bernoulli random variable with possibly irrational parameter $\tau$.…

We prove a general theorem to bound the total variation distance between the distribution of an integer valued random variable of interest and an appropriate discretized normal distribution. We apply the theorem to 2-runs in a sequence of…

In particle physics, as in many areas of science, parameter inference relies on simulations to bridge the gap between theory and experiment. Recent developments in simulation-based inference have boosted the sensitivity of analyses;…

Since the introduction of Stein's method in the early 1970s, much research has been done in extending and strengthening it; however, there does not exist a version of Stein's original method of exchangeable pairs for multivariate normal…

We consider the problem of determining feasible systems from a finite set of simulated alternatives with respect to probability constraints, where the observations from stochastic simulations are Bernoulli distributed. Most statistically…

Bayesian parameter inference depends on a choice of prior probability distribution for the parameters in question. The prior which makes the posterior distribution maximally sensitive to data is called the Jeffreys prior, and it is…

The exact expression is derived for the expected value, $< {p_i}> $, for the parameter for any bin $i$ of a histogram following a multinomial distribution derived by sorting $N$ observations into bins of $B$ classes, if $n_i$ of the…

A very simple event frequency approximation algorithm that is sensitive to event timeliness is suggested. The algorithm iteratively updates categorical click-distribution, producing (path of) a random walk on a standard $n$-dimensional…

We first review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. Afterward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and confidence…

In this paper we introduce randomized branching as a tool for parameterized approximation and develop the mathematical machinery for its analysis. Our algorithms improve the best known running times of parameterized approximation algorithms…

The Dirichlet distribution, also known as multivariate beta, is the most used to analyse frequencies or proportions data. Maximum likelihood is widespread for estimation of Dirichlet's parameters. However, for small sample sizes, the…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Estimating the parameter of a Bernoulli process arises in many applications, including photon-efficient active imaging where each illumination period is regarded as a single Bernoulli trial. Motivated by acquisition efficiency when multiple…

The distribution of sum of independent non-identical binomial random variables is frequently encountered in areas such as genomics, healthcare, and operations research. Analytical solutions to the density and distribution are usually…

We consider time-dependent dynamical systems arising as sequential compositions of self-maps of a probability space. We establish conditions under which the Birkhoff sums for multivariate observations, given a centering and a general…

The sum of symmetric Markov dependent three-point random variables is approximated by the difference of two independent Poisson random variables (Skellam random variable). The accuracy is estimated in local, total variation and Wasserstein…

A sequential importance sampling algorithm is developed for the distribution that results when a matrix of independent, but not identically distributed, Bernoulli random variables is conditioned on a given sequence of row and column sums.…