相关论文: Maximum Entropy Distributions Inferred from Option…

The principle of absence of arbitrage opportunities allows obtaining the distribution of stock price fluctuations by maximizing its information entropy. This leads to a physical description of the underlying dynamics as a random walk…

Accounting for the non-normality of asset returns remains challenging in robust portfolio optimization. In this article, we tackle this problem by assessing the risk of the portfolio through the "amount of randomness" conveyed by its…

In this paper we study the problem of computing max-entropy distributions over a discrete set of objects subject to observed marginals. Interest in such distributions arises due to their applicability in areas such as statistical physics,…

In this paper, we combine modern portfolio theory and option pricing theory so that a trader who takes a position in a European option contract and the underlying assets can construct an optimal portfolio such that at the moment of the…

We present a technique for entropy optimization to calculate a distribution from its moments. The technique is based upon maximizing a discretized form of the Shannon entropy functional by mapping the problem onto a dual space where an…

This paper shows how to evolve numerically the maximum entropy probability distributions for a given set of constraints, which is a variational calculus problem. An evolutionary algorithm can obtain approximations to some well-known…

Maximum-entropy distributions are shown to appear in the probability calculus as approximations of a model by exchangeability or a model by sufficiency, the former model being preferable. The implications of this fact are discussed,…

We introduce a new measure of interdependence among the components of a random vector along the main diagonal of the vector copula, i.e. along the line $u_{1}=\ldots=u_{J}$, for $\left(u_{1},\ldots,u_{J}\right)\in\left[0,1\right]^{J}$. Our…

Cryptocurrency markets have attracted many interest for global investors because of their novelty, wide online availability, increasing capitalization and potential profits. In the econophysics tradition we show that many of the most…

We propose a method for transforming probability distributions so that parameters of interest are forced into a specified distribution. We prove that this approach is the maximum entropy choice, and provide a motivating example applicable…

In the market place, diversification reduces risk and provides protection against extreme events by ensuring that one is not overly exposed to individual occurrences. We argue that diversification is best measured by characteristics of the…

We consider distributions of ordered random vectors with given one-dimensional marginal distributions. We give an elementary necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of such a distribution with finite entropy. In this case, we…

A common statistical situation concerns inferring an unknown distribution Q(x) from a known distribution P(y), where X (dimension n), and Y (dimension m) have a known functional relationship. Most commonly, n<m, and the task is relatively…

We study the problem of finding probability densities that match given European call option prices. To allow prior information about such a density to be taken into account, we generalise the algorithm presented in Neri and Schneider (2011)…

We investigate the position of the Buchen-Kelly density in a family of entropy maximising densities which all match European call option prices for a given maturity observed in the market. Using the Legendre transform which links the…

Maximum entropy modeling is a flexible and popular framework for formulating statistical models given partial knowledge. In this paper, rather than the traditional method of optimizing over the continuous density directly, we learn a smooth…

In financial markets marked by inherent volatility, extreme events can result in substantial investor losses. This paper proposes a portfolio strategy designed to mitigate extremal risks. By applying extreme value theory, we evaluate the…

It is supposed that the exponential multiplier in the method of the non-equilibrium statistical operator (Zubarev`s approach) can be considered as a distribution density of the past lifetime of the system, and can be replaced by an…

In Neri and Schneider (2012) we presented a method to recover the Maximum Entropy Density (MED) inferred from prices of call and digital options on a set of n strikes. To find the MED we need to numerically invert a one-dimensional function…

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing…