相关论文: The effect of time distribution shape on simulated…

Just like the degrees of human and animal interaction networks, the distribution of the times between interactions is known to often be right-skewed and fat-tailed. Both these distributions affect epidemic dynamics strongly, but, as we show…

The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties,…

We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…

In this paper, we focus on the hitting times of a stochastic epidemic model presented by \cite{Gray}. Under the help of the auxiliary stopping times, we investigate the asymptotic limits of the hitting times by the variations of calculus…

We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate…

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

Even in large systems, the effect of noise arising from when populations are initially small can persist to be measurable on the macroscale. A deterministic approximation to a stochastic model will fail to capture this effect, but it can be…

We consider a model for an infectious disease in the onset of an outbreak. We introduce contact tracing incorporating a tracing delay. The effect of randomness in the delay and the effect of the length of this delay in comparison to the…

This study presents an integrated approach to understanding epidemic dynamics through a stochastic spatio-temporal simulation model on a multiplex network, blending physical and informational layers. The physical layer maps the geographic…

The spontaneous behavioral changes of the agents during an epidemic can have significant effects on the delay and the prevalence of its spread. In this work, we study a social distancing game among the agents of a population, who determine…

Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…

We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…

This paper addresses the question of how population diffusion affects the formation of the spatial patterns in the spatial epidemic model by Turing mechanisms. In particular, we present theoretical analysis to results of the numerical…

Recent empirical observations suggest a heterogeneous nature of human activities. The heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution at population level is well accepted, while whether the individual acts in a heterogeneous way is still under…

The concurrency of edges, quantified by the number of edges that share a common node at a given time point, may be an important determinant of epidemic processes in temporal networks. We propose theoretically tractable Markovian temporal…

The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise,…

This study investigates the utilization of various mathematical models for comprehending and managing outbreaks of infectious diseases, with a specific focus on how different distributions of incubation times influence predictions regarding…

Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…

A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…