相关论文: Prediction for discrete time series

The problem of optimal stopping with finite horizon in discrete time is considered in view of maximizing the expected gain. The algorithm proposed in this paper is completely nonparametric in the sense that it uses observed data from the…

The sensitivity of trajectories over finite time intervals t to perturbations of the initial conditions can be associated with a finite-time Lyapunov exponent lambda, obtained from the elements M_{ij} of the stability matrix M. For globally…

We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…

The conditional distribution of the next outcome given the infinite past of a stationary process can be inferred from finite but growing segments of the past. Several schemes are known for constructing pointwise consistent estimates, but…

We study an open discrete-time queueing network that models the collection of data in a multi-hop sensor network. We assume data is generated at the sensor nodes as a discrete-time Bernoulli process. All nodes in the network maintain a…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…

We study a discrete-time Markov process $X_n\in\mathbb{R}^d$, for which the distribution of the future increments depends only on the relative ranking of its components (descending order by value). We endow the process with a…

We proposed a learning algorithm for nonparametric estimation and on-line prediction for general stationary ergodic sources. We prepare histograms each of which estimates the probability as a finite distribution, and mixture them with…

Consider a Markov process $\{\Phi(t) : t\geq 0\}$ evolving on a Polish space ${\sf X}$. A version of the $f$-Norm Ergodic Theorem is obtained: Suppose that the process is $\psi$-irreducible and aperiodic. For a given function $f\colon{\sf…

We consider stationary ergodic processes indexed by $\mathbb Z$ or $\mathbb Z^n$ whose finite dimensional marginals have laws which are absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure. We define an entropy theory for these continuous…

We consider a large family of discrete and continuous time controlled Markov processes and study an ergodic risk-sensitive minimization problem. Under a blanket stability assumption, we provide a complete analysis to this problem. In…

We are studying stationary random processes with conditional polynomial moments that allow a continuous path modification. Processes with continuous path modification, are important because they are relatively easy to simulate. One does not…

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

We study the long time behaviour of a Markov process evolving in $\mathbb{N}$ and conditioned not to hit 0. Assuming that the process comes back quickly from infinity, we prove that the process admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution…

We revisit processes generated by iterated random functions driven by a stationary and ergodic sequence. Such a process is called strongly stable if a random initialization exists, for which the process is stationary and ergodic, and for…

Entropy estimation, due in part to its connection with mutual information, has seen considerable use in the study of time series data including causality detection and information flow. In many cases, the entropy is estimated using…

Let $P$ be the transition matrix of a finite, irreducible and reversible Markov chain. We say the continuous time Markov chain $X$ has transition matrix $P$ and speed $\lambda$ if it jumps at rate $\lambda$ according to the matrix $P$. Fix…