相关论文: Coupling a branching process to an infinite dimens…
Traditional compartmental models capture population-level dynamics but fail to characterize individual-level risk. The computational cost of exact likelihood evaluation for partially observed individual-based models, however, grows…
In order to model an epidemic, different approaches can be adopted. Mainly, the deterministic approach and the stochastic one. Recently, a large amount of literature has been published using the two approaches. The aim of this paper is to…
The initial transient phase of an emerging epidemic is of critical importance for data-driven model building, model-based prediction of the epidemic trend, and articulation of control/prevention strategies. In principle, quantitative models…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…
Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a…
We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…
We are interested in the dynamic of a structured branching population where the trait of each individual moves according to a Markov process. The rate of division of each individual is a function of its trait and when a branching event…
We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…
Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe,…
In modeling parasitic diseases, it is natural to distinguish hosts according to the number of parasites that they carry, leading to a countably infinite type space. Proving the analogue of the deterministic equations, used in models with…
We are interested in modeling some two-level population dynamics, resulting from the interplay of ecological interactions and phenotypic variation of individuals (or hosts) and the evolution of cells (or parasites) of two types living in…
A feature often observed in epidemiological networks is significant heterogeneity in degree. A popular modelling approach to this has been to consider large populations with highly heterogeneous discrete contact rates. This paper defines an…
Scaling limits for continuous-time branching processes with discrete state space are provided as the initial state tends to infinity. Depending on the finiteness or non-finiteness of the mean and/or the variance of the offspring…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) prevalent for modeling stochastic population dynamics in ecology, biology, epidemiology, and many other fields. The transient or finite-time behavior of these systems…
I present three models of plant--pathogen interactions. The models are stochastic and spatially explicit at the scale of individual plants. For each model, I use a version of pair approximation or moment closure along with a separation of…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…
Multitype branching processes (MTBP) model branching structures, where the nodes of the resulting tree are objects of different types. One field of application of such models in biology is in studies of cell proliferation. A sampling scheme…
In this paper, the recurrent events that can occur more than one over the follow-up time have been modeled by phase-type distributions. We use the finite-state continuous-time Markov process with multi states for patients with recurrent…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…