相关论文: On Semimeasures Predicting Martin-Loef Random Sequ…

Solomonoff's inductive learning model is a powerful, universal and highly elegant theory of sequence prediction. Its critical flaw is that it is incomputable and thus cannot be used in practice. It is sometimes suggested that it may still…

In this paper we investigate algorithmic randomness on more general spaces than the Cantor space, namely computable metric spaces. To do this, we first develop a unified framework allowing computations with probability measures. We show…

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard…

This paper explores a novel definition of Schnorr randomness for noncomputable measures. We say $x$ is uniformly Schnorr $\mu$-random if $t(\mu,x)<\infty$ for all lower semicomputable functions $t(\mu,x)$ such that $\mu\mapsto\int…

Solomonoff sequence prediction is a scheme to predict digits of binary strings without knowing the underlying probability distribution. We call a prediction scheme informed when it knows the true probability distribution of the sequence.…

Suppose that we have a method which estimates the conditional probabilities of some unknown stochastic source and we use it to guess which of the outcomes will happen. We want to make a correct guess as often as it is possible. What…

This chapter discusses the Solomonoff approach to universal prediction. The crucial ingredient in the approach is the notion of computability, and I present the main idea as an attempt to meet two plausible computability desiderata for a…

Let $M$ be a complete Riemannian manifold, $N\in \NN$ and $p\ge 1$. We prove that almost everywhere on $x=(x_1,...,x_N)\in M^N$ for Lebesgue measure in $M^N$, the measure $\di \mu(x)=\f1N\sum_{k=1}^N\d_{x_k}$ has a unique $p$-mean $e_p(x)$.…

In this paper, we study Bernoulli random sequences, i.e., sequences that are Martin-L\"of random with respect to a Bernoulli measure $\mu_p$ for some $p\in[0,1]$, where we allow for the possibility that $p$ is noncomputable. We focus in…

In the theory of algorithmic randomness, several notions of random sequence are defined via a game-theoretic approach, and the notions that received most attention are perhaps Martin-Loef randomness and computable randomness. The latter…

Given a compact metric space (X,d) equipped with a non-atomic, probability measure m and a real, positive decreasing function p we consider a `natural' class of limsup subsets La(p) of X. The classical limsup sets of `well approximable'…

The paper considers quantitative versions of different randomness notions: algorithmic test measures the amount of non-randomness (and is infinite for non-random sequences). We start with computable measures on Cantor space (and Martin-Lof…

We study Martin-L\"{o}f random (ML-random) points on computable probability measures on sample and parameter spaces (Bayes models). We consider variants of conditional randomness defined by ML-randomness on Bayes models and those of…

We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor $M$ from the true distribution $mu$ by the algorithmic complexity of $mu$. Here…

The remarkable results of Foster and Vohra was a starting point for a series of papers which show that any sequence of outcomes can be learned (with no prior knowledge) using some universal randomized forecasting algorithm and…

Standard practice in Hidden Markov Model (HMM) selection favors the candidate with the highest full-sequence likelihood, although this is equivalent to making a decision based on a single realization. We introduce a \emph{fragment-based}…

Ray Solomonoff invented the notion of universal induction featuring an aptly termed "universal" prior probability function over all possible computable environments. The essential property of this prior was its ability to dominate all other…

It is shown that operator-selfdecomposable measures, or more precisely their Urbanik decomposability semigroups, induce generalized Mehler semigroups of bounded linear operators. Moreover, those semigroups can be represented as random…

The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to…

Shape constraints yield flexible middle grounds between fully nonparametric and fully parametric approaches to modeling distributions of data. The specific assumption of log-concavity is motivated by applications across economics, survival…