相关论文: Extreme Associated Functions: Optimally Linking Lo…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…
There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…
The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…
Motivated by the EVA2025 data challenge, where we participated as the team DesiBoys, we propose a regression strategy within the framework of regular variation to estimate the occurrences and intensities of high precipitation extremes…
A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…
New results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and multiple global reanalysis datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the mean and standard deviation in the surface air temperature. A…
We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
In this paper we present the characterization of all the principal meteorological parameters (wind speed and direction, pressure, absolute and potential temperature) extended over 25 km from the ground and over two years (2003 and 2004)…
Extreme weather events, such as windstorms and heatwaves, are driven by persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that evolve over several consecutive days. While traditional circulation-based studies often focus on instantaneous…
Lightning flashes are rare albeit hazardous events. Despite this scarcity, generalized additive models (GAMs) succeed in producing a climatology of lightning occurrence for the eastern Alps and surrounding lowlands at an unprecedented…
In recent years, great progress has been made in the field of forecasting meteorological variables. Recently, deep learning architectures have made a major breakthrough in forecasting the daily average temperature over a ten-day horizon.…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Detrended fluctuation analysis is used to investigate correlations between the monthly average of the maximum daily temperatures for different locations in the continental US and the different climates these locations have. When we plot the…
Long memory and circulation patterns are potential sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Here, we infer one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic models of daily temperature which capture both long memory and external driving by the…
We set out to evaluate the potential of the Colombian Andes for millimeter-wave astronomical observations. Previous studies for astronomical site testing in this region have suggested that nighttime humidity and cloud cover conditions make…
An estimate of the net direction of climate interactions in different geographical regions is made by constructing a directed climate network from a regular latitude-longitude grid of nodes, using a directionality index (DI) based on…
Extreme events arising in georeferenced processes can take various forms, such as occurring in isolated patches or stretching contiguously over large areas, and can further vary with the spatial location and the extremeness of the events.…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…