相关论文: Extreme Associated Functions: Optimally Linking Lo…
Estimating background-error covariances remains a core challenge in variational data assimilation (DA). Operational systems typically approximate these covariances by transformations that separate geostrophically balanced components from…
A proper description of ocean-atmosphere interactions is key for a correct understanding of climate evolution. The interplay among the different variables acting over the climate is complex, often leading to correlations across long spatial…
A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as stochastic generator of non-stationary time series of the total energy of the system. A linear time trend is imposed on the parameter $T_E$, descriptive of the forced…
The joint extremal spatial dependence of wind speed and significant wave height in the North East Atlantic is quantified using Metop satellite scatterometer and hindcast observations for the period 2007-2018, and a multivariate spatial…
Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification is used to assess the ability of twenty-one Global Climate Models (GCMs) to…
Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…
Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…
In order to understand solar atmospheric heating it is important to test heating models against spatially resolved data from solar active regions. Here we model a small active region, AR~12760 observed on 2020 April 28, with the GX…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…
The extremogram, proposed by Davis and Mikosch (2008), is a useful tool for measuring extremal dependence and checking model adequacy in a time series. We define the extremogram in the spatial domain when the data is observed on a lattice…
Max-stable processes are a popular tool for the study of environmental extremes, and the extremal skew-$t$ process is a general model that allows for a flexible extremal dependence structure. For inference on max-stable processes with…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Data assimilation procedures have been developed for thermospheric models using satellite density measurements as part of the EU Framework Package 7 ATMOP Project. Two models were studied; one a general circulation model, TIEGCM, and the…
Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
Predicting future climatic conditions at high spatial resolution is essential for many applications and impact studies in science. Here, we present monthly time series data on precipitation, minimum- and maximum temperature for four…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…
This project aims to explore which combinations of meteorological conditions are associated with extreme ground level ozone conditions. Our approach focuses only on the tail by optimizing the tail dependence between the ozone response and…
Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with…