相关论文: Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy mod…

This paper discusses some problems possibly arising when approximating via Monte-Carlo simulations the distributions of goodness-of-fit test statistics based on the empirical distribution function. We argue that failing to re-estimate…

Although sloppy interpretation is usually accounted for by theories of ellipsis, it often arises in non-elliptical contexts. In this paper, a theory of sloppy interpretation is provided which captures this fact. The underlying idea is that…

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

Various issues related to the complexity of apprais- ing the capabilities of physics models implemented in Monte Carlo simulation codes and the evolution of the functional quality the associated software are considered, such as the…

We analyze the \textit{Large Deviation Probability (LDP)} of linear factor models generated from non-identically distributed components with \textit{regularly-varying} tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient…

Model uncertainty is a crucial issue in statistics, econometrics and machine learning, yet its definition remains ambiguous and is subject to various interpretations in the literature. So far, there has not been a universally accepted…

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models, especially in safety-critical domains. While exact Bayesian inference offers a principled approach, it is often computationally infeasible for deep neural networks.…

Large language models (LLMs) often generate fluent but factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, which undermine their reliability in real-world applications. While uncertainty estimation has emerged as a promising strategy for…

While language models are increasingly more proficient at code generation, they still frequently generate incorrect programs. Many of these programs are obviously wrong, but others are more subtle and pass weaker correctness checks such as…

In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen…

Collinearity and near-collinearity of predictors cause difficulties when doing regression. In these cases, variable selection becomes untenable because of mathematical issues concerning the existence and numerical stability of the…

A series of monte carlo studies were performed to compare the behavior of some alternative procedures for reasoning under uncertainty. The behavior of several Bayesian, linear model and default reasoning procedures were examined in the…

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Existing variance reduction techniques used in stochastic simulations for rare event analysis still require a substantial number of model evaluations to estimate small failure probabilities. In the context of complex, nonlinear finite…

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods rely on a hierarchy of possibly less accurate but statistically correlated simplified or reduced models, in order to accelerate the estimation of statistics of high-fidelity models without compromising the…

We study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in…

Although deep models achieve high predictive performance, it is difficult for humans to understand the predictions they made. Explainability is important for real-world applications to justify their reliability. Many example-based…

It is not, in general, possible to have access to all variables that determine the behavior of a system. Having identified a number of variables whose values can be accessed, there may still be hidden variables which influence the dynamics…