相关论文: Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy mod…

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Suppose data are fitted to some parametric model but that the true model happens to be one with an additional parameter. When a parameter is to be estimated one can use likelihood estimation in the wider model or in the narrow model.…

Intuitively, unfamiliarity should lead to lack of confidence. In reality, current algorithms often make highly confident yet wrong predictions when faced with relevant but unfamiliar examples. A classifier we trained to recognize gender is…

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Random field Monte Carlo (MC) reliability analysis is a robust stochastic method to determine the probability of failure. This method, however, requires a large number of numerical simulations demanding high computational costs. This paper…

Large language models have shown impressive capabilities across a variety of NLP tasks, yet their generating text autoregressively is time-consuming. One way to speed them up is speculative decoding, which generates candidate segments (a…

Model uncertainties and simulation uncertainties occur in mathematical modeling of multiscale complex systems, since some mechanisms or scales are not represented (i.e., "unresolved") due to lack in our understanding of these mechanisms or…

Engineering risk is concerned with the likelihood of failure and the scenarios when it occurs. The sensitivity of failure probability to change in system parameters is relevant to risk-informed decision making. Computing sensitivity is at…

Convolutional neural networks have shown to achieve superior performance on image segmentation tasks. However, convolutional neural networks, operating as black-box systems, generally do not provide a reliable measure about the confidence…

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

In this paper, we consider the problem of parameter sensitivity in models of complex dynamical systems through the lens of information geometry. We calculate the sensitivity of model behavior to variations in parameters. In most cases,…

The main focus of the analysts who deal with clustered data is usually not on the clustering variables, and hence the group-specific parameters are treated as nuisance. If a fixed effects formulation is preferred and the total number of…

Supervised masking approaches in the time-frequency domain aim to employ deep neural networks to estimate a multiplicative mask to extract clean speech. This leads to a single estimate for each input without any guarantees or measures of…

Mathematical models are essential for understanding and making predictions about systems arising in nature and engineering. Yet, mathematical models are a simplification of true phenomena, thus making predictions subject to uncertainty.…

Interpretable classification models are built with the purpose of providing a comprehensible description of the decision logic to an external oversight agent. When considered in isolation, a decision tree, a set of classification rules, or…

Model selection often aims to choose a single model, assuming that the form of the model is correct. However, there may be multiple possible underlying explanatory patterns in a set of predictors that could explain a response. Model…

A novel solution to the smoothing problem for multi-object dynamical systems is proposed and evaluated. The systems of interest contain an unknown and varying number of dynamical objects that are partially observed under noisy and corrupted…

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do…

Negative sampling approaches are prevalent in implicit collaborative filtering for obtaining negative labels from massive unlabeled data. As two major concerns in negative sampling, efficiency and effectiveness are still not fully achieved…