相关论文: Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy mod…

Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and…

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce…

We introduce an efficient method for learning linear models from uncertain data, where uncertainty is represented as a set of possible variations in the data, leading to predictive multiplicity. Our approach leverages abstract…

An important issue when using Machine Learning algorithms in recent research is the lack of interpretability. Although these algorithms provide accurate point predictions for various learning problems, uncertainty estimates connected with…

We discuss several aspects of creation of adequate mathematical models in other sciences. In particular, many difficulties stem from great complexity of the source systems and the presence of a variety of uncertain factors. We illustrate…

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting…

Mathematical models are invaluable for understanding and predicting how biological systems behave, although their construction requires specifying mechanisms and relationships that are often not perfectly known. In the presence of multiple…

Large-scale empirical data, the sample size and the dimension are high, often exhibit various characteristics. For example, the noise term follows unknown distributions or the model is very sparse that the number of critical variables is…

Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…

Clinical prediction models are developed widely across medical disciplines. When predictors in such models are highly collinear, unexpected or spurious predictor-outcome associations may occur, thereby potentially reducing face-validity and…

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…

Recent advancements in machine learning have emphasized the need for transparency in model predictions, particularly as interpretability diminishes when using increasingly complex architectures. In this paper, we propose leveraging…

Recently, NLP models have achieved remarkable progress across a variety of tasks; however, they have also been criticized for being not robust. Many robustness problems can be attributed to models exploiting spurious correlations, or…

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

The primary focus of Monte Carlo simulation is to identify and quantify risk related to uncertainty and variability in spreadsheet model inputs. The stress of Monte Carlo simulation often reveals logical errors in the underlying spreadsheet…

Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We…

When predictive models are used to support complex and important decisions, the ability to explain a model's reasoning can increase trust, expose hidden biases, and reduce vulnerability to adversarial attacks. However, attempts at…