相关论文: Are We Typical?

The development of science and technology has progressively demonstrated the ability of humankind to understand and manipulate the physical world, and it has also shown some fundamental limitations to predictability of physical events. This…

These lectures deal with the problem of inductive inference, that is, the problem of reasoning under conditions of incomplete information. Is there a general method for handling uncertainty? Or, at least, are there rules that could in…

People act upon their desires, but often, also act in adherence to implicit social norms. How do people infer these unstated social norms from others' behavior, especially in novel social contexts? We propose that laypeople have intuitive…

An approach is presented treating decision theory as a probabilistic theory based on quantum techniques. Accurate definitions are given and thorough analysis is accomplished for the quantum probabilities describing the choice between…

The appeal of thermodynamics to problems outside physics is undeniable, as is the growing recognition of its apparent universality, yet in the absence of a rigorous formalism divorced from the peculiarities of molecular systems all attempts…

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the…

Probabilities may be subjective or objective; we are concerned with both kinds of probability, and the relationship between them. The fundamental theory of objective probability is quantum mechanics: it is argued that neither Bohr's…

The aim of this article is to promote the use of probabilistic methods in the study of problems in mathematical general relativity. Two new and simple singularity theorems, whose features are different from the classical singularity…

The perturbation theory based on typicality introduced in Ref. [1] and further refined in Refs. [2, 3] provides a powerful tool since it is intended to be applicable to a wide range of scenarios while relying only on a few parameters. Even…

One of the main concepts in quantum physics is a density matrix, which is a symmetric positive definite matrix of trace one. Finite probability distributions can be seen as a special case when the density matrix is restricted to be…

When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…

We review some of the common methods for model selection: the goodness of fit, the likelihood ratio test, Bayesian model selection using Bayes factors, and the classical as well as the Bayesian information theoretic approaches. We…

Stochastic independence has a complex status in probability theory. It is not part of the definition of a probability measure, but it is nonetheless an essential property for the mathematical development of this theory. Bayesian decision…

Recent results suggest that quantum mechanical phenomena may be interpreted as a failure of standard probability theory and may be described by a Bayesian complex probability theory.

Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…

In this work, we consider a binary hypothesis testing problem involving a group of human decision-makers. Due to the nature of human behavior, each human decision-maker observes the phenomenon of interest sequentially up to a random length…

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

Quantum Bayesian networks provide a mathematical formalism to describe causal relations, to analyse correlations, and to predict the probabilities of measurement outcomes, in systems involving both classical and quantum data. They…

There are several assumptions made in a standard $\chi^2$ analysis of data, including the frequent assumption that the likelihood function is well approximated by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. This article briefly reviews the…

Outlier hypothesis testing is studied in a universal setting. Multiple sequences of observations are collected, a small subset of which are outliers. A sequence is considered an outlier if the observations in that sequence are distributed…