相关论文: Are We Typical?

This paper seeks to provide a thorough account of the ubiquitous nature of the Bayesian paradigm in modern statistics, data science and artificial intelligence. Once maligned, on the one hand by those who philosophically hated the very idea…

Various measures can be used to estimate bias or unfairness in a predictor. Previous work has already established that some of these measures are incompatible with each other. Here we show that, when groups differ in prevalence of the…

In the modern quantum mechanics of cosmology observers are physical systems within the universe. They have no preferred role in the formulation of the theory nor in its predictions of third person probabilities of what occurs. However,…

Current analysis of astronomical data are confronted with the daunting task of modeling the awkward features of astronomical data, among which heteroscedastic (point-dependent) errors, intrinsic scatter, non-ignorable data collection…

Conventional statistics begins with a model, and assigns a likelihood of obtaining any particular set of data. The opposite approach, beginning with the data and assigning a likelihood to any particular model, is explored here for the case…

Often it is assumed that a quantum state or a phase-space distribution must be normalizable. Here it is shown that even if it is not normalizable, one may be able to extract normalized observational probabilities from it.

A new method is developed to represent probabilistic relations on multiple random events. Where previously knowledge bases containing probabilistic rules were used for this purpose, here a probability distribution over the relations is…

Naive Bayes classifiers, a family of classifiers that are based on the popular Bayes' probability theorem, are known for creating simple yet well performing models, especially in the fields of document classification and disease prediction.…

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

Modern scientific cosmology pushes the boundaries of knowledge and the knowable. This is prompting questions on the nature of scientific knowledge. A central issue is what defines a 'good' model. When addressing global properties of the…

In almost every scientific field, an experiment involves collecting data and then analysing it. The analysis stage will often consist in trying to extract some physical parameter and estimating its uncertainty; this is known as Parameter…

Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the…

We present a comparative study between classical probability and quantum probability from the Bayesian viewpoint, where probability is construed as our rational degree of belief on whether a given statement is true. From this viewpoint,…

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical…

The discovery of a small cosmological constant has stimulated interest in the measure problem. One should expect to be a typical observer, but defining such a thing is difficult in the vastness of an eternally inflating universe. We propose…

In this manuscript, we discuss the substantial importance of Bayesian reasoning in Social Science research. Particularly, we focus on foundational elements to fit models under the Bayesian paradigm. We aim to offer a frame of reference for…

This article is geared towards theorists interested in estimating parameters of their theoretical models, and computing their own limits using available experimental data and elementary Mathematica code. The examples given can be useful…

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

Recent work in cognitive science has uncovered a diversity of explanatory values, or dimensions along which we judge explanations as better or worse. We propose a Bayesian account of how these values fit together to guide explanation. The…

Normality, in the colloquial sense, has historically been considered an aspirational trait, synonymous with ideality. The arithmetic average and, by extension, statistics including linear regression coefficients, have often been used to…