经济学

We study a ridge estimator for the high-dimensional two-way fixed effect regression model with a sparse bipartite network. We develop concentration inequalities showing that when the ridge parameters increase as the log of the network size,…

Factor extraction from systems of variables with a large cross-sectional dimension, $N$, is often based on either Principal Components (PC)-based procedures, or Kalman filter (KF)-based procedures. Measuring the uncertainty of the extracted…

This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed…

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is diffusing rapidly, yet its adoption is strikingly unequal. Using nationally representative UK survey data from 2023 to 2024, we show that women adopt GenAI substantially less often than men…

This paper derives limit properties of nonparametric kernel regression estimators without requiring existence of density for regressors in $\mathbb{R}^{q}.$ In functional regression limit properties are established for multivariate…

We investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on skill requirements using 14 million online job vacancies from Chinese listed firms (2018-2022). Employing a novel Extreme Multi-Label Classification (XMLC) algorithm…

The rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into China's economy presents a classic governance challenge: how to harness its growth potential while managing its disruptive effects on traditional capital and labor markets. This…

Students from different socioeconomic backgrounds exhibit persistent gaps in test scores, gaps that can translate into unequal educational and labor-market outcomes later in life. In many assessments, performance reflects not only what…

Consider a setup in which a decision maker is informed about the population by a finite sample and based on that sample has to decide whether or not to apply a certain treatment. We work out finite sample minimax regret treatment rules…

We propose a new method to estimate structural parameters in multi-way networks while controlling for rich structures of fixed effects. The method is based on a series of classification tasks and is agnostic to both the number and structure…

We study a moral hazard problem with adverse selection: a risk-neutral agent can directly control the output distribution and possess private information about the production environment. The principal designs a menu of contracts satisfying…

In this paper, we study causal inference when the treatment variable is an aggregation of multiple sub-treatment variables. Researchers often report marginal causal effects for the aggregated treatment, implicitly assuming that the target…

This paper uses register-based data to analyze the consequences of a recent major Danish welfare reform for children's academic performance and well-being. In addition to work requirements, the reform brought about considerable reductions…

In many applications, the parameter of interest involves a simplex-valued weight which is identified as a solution to an optimization problem. Examples include synthetic control methods with group-level weights and various methods of model…

Local polynomial density (LPD) estimators are widely used for inference on boundary features of the density function. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that kernel choice substantially affects efficiency. Theory, simulations, and…

Panel local projection (LP) with fixed-effects (FE) is widely adopted for evaluating the economic consequences of financial crises across countries. This paper highlights a fundamental methodological issue: the presence of the Nickell bias…

We study how nonlinear, state-dependent health dynamics shape economic behavior, inequality, and the evaluation of disability insurance at older ages. Using English panel data, we construct a continuous health index and estimate its…

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct…

We study optimal rating design under moral hazard and strategic manipulation. An intermediary observes a noisy indicator of effort and commits to a rating policy that shapes market beliefs and pay. We characterize optimal ratings via…

This study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Large Language Model (LLM) with a Transformer architecture for stock price forecasting. The research addresses a critical theoretical gap in existing approaches…