经济学

Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that…

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to…

We consider a generalized method of moments framework in which a part of the data vector is missing for some units in a completely unrestricted, potentially endogenous way. In this setup, the parameters of interest are usually only…

Why do maladaptive perceptions and norms, such as zero-sum interpretations of interaction, persist even when they undermine cooperation and investment? We develop a framework where bounded rationality and heterogeneous cognitive biases…

We study the optimal design of relational contracts that incentivize an expert to share specialized knowledge with a novice. While the expert fears that a more knowledgeable novice may later erode his future rents, a third-party principal…

We study network revenue management problems motivated by applications such as railway ticket sales and hotel room bookings. Requests, each requiring a resource for a consecutive stay, arrive sequentially with known arrival probabilities.…

This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies on the unconditional quantiles of an outcome variable. For a given counterfactual policy, we obtain identified sets for the effect of both marginal and global…

We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria…

Dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models have found widespread application in marketing. However, estimating these becomes challenging in "big data" settings with high-dimensional state-action spaces. To address this challenge, this paper…

Sports are one of the most significant products of the entertainment industry, accounting for a large portion of all television (and even platform) viewing. Consequently, the sale of broadcasting and media rights is the most important…

The 2023 U.S. banking crisis propagated not through direct financial linkages but through a high-frequency, information-based contagion channel. This paper moves beyond exploration analysis to test the "too-similar-to-fail" hypothesis,…

This paper studies state-dependent local projections (LPs). First, I establish a general characterization of their estimand: under minimal assumptions, state-dependent LPs recover weighted averages of causal effects. This holds for…

Understanding how climate and innovation policies perform during socio-technical transitions remains a central challenge in innovation studies. Empirical analyses of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions continue to…

This paper studies preference aggregation under risk. In our model, each agent has an incomplete preference relation represented by a set of expected utility functions. The classical Pareto principle is silent on agreement involving…

Normal care units (NCU) placement affects health outcomes. NCUs in a hospital have different specialisations. There are patients that can potentially stay in multiple different NCUs. On a given day the NCUs are on different utilisation…

This paper proposes a semiparametric joint VaRES framework driven by realized information, mo tivated by the economic mechanisms underlying tail risk generation. Building on the CAViaR quantile recursion, the model introduces a dynamic…

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference framework for incomplete structural models, termed distribution-matching posterior inference (DMPI). Extending the minimal econometric interpretation (MEI), DMPI constructs a divergence-based…

Homelessness in American cities is becoming an ever more prominent issue, but its causes remain contested, ranging from mental health and substance abuse to housing affordability and local labor markets. To shed light on this issue, I…

Socioeconomic integration is a critical dimension of social equity, yet persistent disparities remain in access to health insurance, education, and employment across different demographic groups. While previous studies have examined…

This study introduces the Digital Competitiveness Index for Trade (DCIT), a composite metric integrating ICT readiness, broadband adoption, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, government effectiveness, and trade volume to assess…