经济学

I develop the asymptotic theory of instrument strength for Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) in large panels with both $N$ and $T$ growing. The strength of the GIV depends on the presence of dominant units. I formalise what dominance…

Measuring the long-term opportunity cost of interventions remains a critical challenge in e-commerce A/B testing. While strategic levers (such as dynamic pricing, ranking algorithms, and promotional campaigns) trigger shifts in consumer…

Average wages in Japan rose until the mid-1990s but stagnated thereafter. This paper studies Japan's long-run wage stagnation by decomposing changes in average log real hourly wages from 1980 to 2024 into four components: demographic change…

This article introduces an empirical condition for the nonparametric point-identification of multivariate instrumental variable models with continuous endogenous variables using binary instruments. Verifying this condition can confirm…

We estimate Kyle's (1985) price-impact coefficient $\lambda$ directly from daily equity order flow and test its ability to forecast the cross-section of subsequent stock returns. Using CRSP data from 2020 to 2025, we construct firm-month…

Suppose we want to assign a certainty equivalent--one number--to a multivariate risk. Which such assignments are law-invariant, monotone with respect to vector stochastic dominance, and invariant to independent background risk? I show that…

We examine the economic impact of increasingly productive AI and policies that spread its benefits across the economy. Improvements in AI productivity trigger labor reallocation and changes in absolute and relative wages for different types…

This paper estimates the effect of cross-border transmission constraints on suspected market power abuse in the German wholesale electricity market. Using a 2SRI instrumental variables approach, we study suspected strategic behavior by…

This paper studies the structure and computation of von Neumann-Morgenstern (vNM) stable sets in one-to-one matching markets. While pairwise stability and corewise stability coincide under strict preferences and provide a well-understood…

Large language models (LLMs), a prominent form of artificial intelligence (AI), are becoming everyday interfaces for political questions, but most exchanges are dyadic rather than audiencefacing. This paper asks whether AI conversation…

Centralized hydrothermal planning models determine generation schedules and electricity spot prices based on inflow forecasts in audited-cost power systems, such as those prevalent in Latin America, and provide operational benchmarks and…

Researchers often use the density of connections between groups of agents, such as communities, blocs, or markets, to characterize the structure of a social or economic network. In many cases, these groups are selected using the network…

This paper finds diverging partial effects of diurnal warming (higher nighttime and daytime temperatures) on agricultural wage-labour shares from decadal Indian Censuses (1981-2011). Though both margins contract grain output and cultivated…

We consider inference for parameters of the form $\theta_0 = E[F_Y^{-1}\circ F_Z(X)]$ for some variables $X$, $Y$ and $Z$. Such parameters appear, in particular, in the ``changes-in-changes'' model of \cite{AtheyImbens2006}. We first…

We examine a choice between bonus contracts offered to dealers of a U.S. auto manufacturer. In our data, dealers select the non-profit-maximizing option in 20 percent of observations, costing the mistaken dealers $18,453 per year on…

This work addresses the problem of assessing player importance in coalitional settings where the available information concerns the relative strength between pairs of coalitions, rather than the absolute worth of each coalition. We…

AI agents increasingly operate inside digital accounts by exercising privileges that users already hold, raising a new control question: whether an existing account entitlement must be exercised manually or may be exercised through a…

We develop the Quasi-Bayesian Hierarchical Model (QBHM) for grouped GMM settings. The framework combines Bayesian hierarchical modelling with Laplace-type estimation: it preserves each group-specific objective function, while introducing a…

In an incentivized laboratory experiment, we study how people account for and respond to others' incentives for paying attention. Participants learn a binary state from an attention task under high or low accuracy incentives. We ask…

Deciding where to live involves a complex balance between commuting and moving, as households must weigh housing affordability, transportation expenses, access to workplaces, and social ties. Traditional urban economic theories focus on the…