经济学
We estimate the impact of environmental law enforcement on violence in the Brazilian Amazon. The introduction of the Real-Time Deforestation Detection System (DETER), which enabled the government to monitor deforestation in real time and…
Economic complexity - a group of dimensionality-reduction methods that apply network science to trade data - represented a paradigm shift in development economics towards materializing the once-intangible concept of capabilities as…
Traditional threshold-based stock networks suffer from subjective parameter selection and inherent limitations: they constrain relationships to binary representations, failing to capture both correlation strength and negative dependencies.…
The credibility revolution advances the use of research designs that permit identification and estimation of causal effects. However, understanding which mechanisms produce measured causal effects remains a challenge. The dominant current…
Can large language models (LLMs) learn a decision maker's preferences from observed choices and generate preference-consistent recommendations in new situations? We propose a portable Simulate-Recommend-Evaluate framework that tests…
Artificial intelligence (AI) changes social learning when aggregated outputs become training data for future predictions. To study this, we extend the DeGroot model by introducing an AI aggregator that trains on population beliefs and feeds…
The European colonization of sub-Saharan Africa drove a massive shift from indigenous religions to Christianity, yet the channels through which this transformation occurred remain poorly understood. Using a geographic regression…
A seller investigates a buyer before setting prices, balancing the cost of acquiring information against the gain from tailoring the contract to the buyer's private type. The optimal signal is coarse: no matter how rich the type space, the…
We develop new methods for constructing confidence sets and intervals in linear instrumental variables (IV) models based on tests that remain valid under weak identification and under heteroskedastic, autocorrelated, or clustered errors. In…
We propose an overview of optimal transport theory and its applications to econometric methodology. This review is specifically designed for practitioners, be they econometric theorists or applied econometricians. The review of applications…
This paper develops a dynamic factor model in which common level and volatility factors evolve jointly, allowing conditional means and variances to interact endogenously within a large-information setting. The joint evolution of these…
We develop likelihood-based bias reduction for nonlinear panel models with additive individual and time effects. In two-way panels, integrated-likelihood corrections are attractive but challenging because the required integration is high…
We develop a framework for quantifying omitted variable bias (OVB) in nonlinear instrumental variable (IV) estimators, including the local average treatment effect (LATE), the LATE for the treated (LATT), and the partially linear IV model…
Autonomous AI systems can now generate complete economics research papers, but they substantially underperform human-authored publications in head-to-head comparisons. This paper decomposes the quality gap into two independent components:…
This paper studies bargaining when buyers can continue searching for alternative sellers while negotiating, which limits their commitment to complete a transaction. Using transaction level data from a Japanese online marketplace, I document…
This paper develops an asymptotic theory for two-step debiased machine learning (DML) estimators in generalised method of moments (GMM) models with general multiway clustered dependence, without relying on cross-fitting. While cross-fitting…
This study establishes a nontrivial upper bound on the out-of-sample $R^2$ ($R^2_{\text{OOS}}$) in return forecasting. In particular, we define a coin-flip oracle model that, under the same directional accuracy, theoretically outperforms…
Forecasting corporate financial distress increasingly requires capturing firms' adoption of transformative technologies such as artificial intelligence, yet model performance remains vulnerable to temporal distribution shifts as these…
Energy imbalance reserve (EIR) product is introduced into the Independent System Operator (ISO) of New England's day-ahead wholesale electricity market to provide a better fuel procurement incentive for generating resources. Different from…
Arrow's Impossibility Theorem is a seminal result of Social Choice Theory that demonstrates the impossibility of ranked-choice decision-making processes to jointly satisfy a number of intuitive and seemingly desirable constraints. The…